Ghosts of a Gentleman’s Agreement -The Unfinished Business of Zimbabwe’s November 2017 coup

Blessed Bombshell Geza                                                                                                                         Screenshot/Youtube

By Blessing Vava

Zimbabwe is at crossroads with a nasty succession entanglement allegedly pitting current President Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa and his deputy Constantino Chiwenga.  This piece is an attempt to shed more understanding on succession politics within the ruling party, ZANU PF and Zimbabwe. I submit, that the events we are witnessing in Zimbabwe can be characterised as “Ghosts of a gentlemen’s agreement and the unfinished business of the November 2017 coup” that deposed long time ruler Robert Mugabe. Oxford University scholar, Miles Tendi characterise the situation in Zimbabwe as an “elite struggle and disagreements among the coup makers.”

Consequently, president Mnangagwa, to secure his unlimited rule, has been working on "coup-proofing."  Coups by their very nature often unfold in secrecy and speed, as a result those who normally come to power through that route often prioritize measures designed to “coup-proof” themselves. In a bid to avert another coup, Mnangagwa, embarked on a strategy of removing from the army, Generals and high ranking officers that were involved in the 2017 coup. He has sought to do so through retiring and redeploying army generals via appointment as Ambassadors, and redeployment in government. Just before the 31st of March 2025 protests, Mnangagwa daringly retired and redeployed army commander General Anselem Sanyatwe, a perceived Chiwenga ally to the Ministry of Sports. ZANU PF Spokesperson Christopher Mutsvangwa, seemingly reinforced this widely held assumption, declaring that the president was making sure that the “State apparatus were now in the rights hands.”  These manoeuvres by president Mnangagwa are seen as a betrayal to the purported ‘gentleman’s agreement’ made with Chiwenga to rule for one term and hand over to his deputy. Without doubt, I think Chiwenga and his military allies feel it is time to re-affirm the succession matrix of 2017. They want to execute the delayed military project to its precise conclusion. However, the tide has since shifted and that agreement seem to have been thrown away; firstly, when Mnangagwa opted to go for a second term in 2023 and now a term extension beyond 2028. It is this shift in plans by president Mnangagwa that has prompted a faction of war veterans by Blessed Geza to now come out in the open calling for the removal or resignation of Mnangagwa.

Is the President still ok?

The much publicised Geza led 31 March demonstrations against president Mnangagwa failed to garner traction beyond the sporadic demonstrations by scores of citizens restricted to downtown Harare. At best, it became a stayaway in major cities as citizens opted to play it safe by avoiding town.  Just a day after the stayaway,  Geza called off the protests and instead revealed a new plan, that of moving a motion to impeach Mnangagwa. Geza also made sensational claims that president Mnangagwa’s mental capacities are compromised, and that he is suffering from vascular dementia. He further hinted that those around the president are aware of his predicament and have been exploiting it and pushing him  to sign corrupt deals to their benefit. Geza claims that Mnangagwa’s close family members, in particular his wife Auxillia and his children and ZANU PF linked businessman Kudakwashe Tagwirei have been at the center of misleading the president. Though Geza’s claims are yet to be substantiated, they have been numerous incidences which raise serious concerns about the president's state of connectedness to his surroundings, infact his public conduct, on numerous occasions has been off-kilter. For instance, while addressing journalists at State House in February this year, he seemed unaware that the national football team has been playing home matches in South Africa, because the country does not have internationally approved football facilities. In another shocking incident in December 2023, he appeared unaware that Zimbabwe had ceased operating a public train service decades ago. Furthermore, in another embarrassing incident, on the 13th of April 2022, while addressing party supporters in Binga he was heard whispering to his deputy Chiwenga  whether Good Friday marked the birth of Jesus Christ or his death. “What’s Good Friday for by the way, was it the birth  or the death of (Jesus Christ)” moments later, he asked again if the next weekend was Easter.  In February this year, President Mnangagwa seems to have been setup, when he paraded a convicted criminal Maxwell Chikumbutso's fake 'inventions' on an imported Saith FEV car. Chikumbutso claimed to have invented a hypersonic energy device, that taps into radio frequencies to power vehicles and motorbikes.  The president went on to praise Chikumbutso, "This is the only vehicle (of its kind) that exists in the world, there is no other. This is the only vehicle in the world and it is in Zimbabwe. He (Mr Chikumbutso) is so gifted that you will not believe it. When he first came to talk to me, I thought he was insane, but I now know that he is well connected." Firstly, this incident raised questions on role of the country’s intelligence agency as it subjected the president to such an embarrassing boob. Secondly, it also questions the president’s  judgement and fitness to hold office. Any normal human being with a sound mind would have picked some red flags on the purported technological innovations by Chikumbutso. 

31 March.. an uprising that never was: Once beaten, twice shy?

The events of the 31st of March can have different interpretations and meanings. By staying away, Zimbabweans sent a strong message against the regime and that they are fed up with corruption, the economic decay and the misrule. It also highlighted a lack of trust between the citizens and the government, in that despite the assurances of safety by the government and the security apparatus, Zimbabweans still opted to stay at home, presumably due to fear. Furthermore, one might also be tempted to say it was a form of expression that they are not interested in the ZANU PF succession politics. Presumably, learning hard lessons from November 2017, they do not want to be used again. In a surprise turn of events, Geza hailed the stayaway as a success, despite the fact that he had called for the people to flood the streets and remove Mnangagwa. In as much as Geza’s call for protests are being measured by the removal of president Mnangagwa, one may not want to miss that what happened on 31st of March 2025 marks the beginning of an open and long-drawn succession battle in ZANU PF and Zimbabwe. 

Two possible scenarios exist in the current succession politics matrix in ZANU PF. Firstly, one would presume that there is a lot of underground work being done by the Chiwenga camp. Important to note is the conduct of Geza, as it shows that he is not alone but there is some power backing him.  Recently, Chiwenga has been widely quoted in the media stating that, “ ... in life if you want to succeed be a risk taker but a calculated risk taker,” probably signalling his strategic intentions. However, I argue that Mnangagwa will remain in office for a while. With rising tension in ZANU PF, we are likely going to see more purges from government of officials aligned to Chiwenga, while Mnangagwa's allies will be mobilising to consolidate their power and influence in the party and the State. A worst case scenario can be, Mnangagwa goes for broke, and fires Chiwenga, such a move could potentially trigger a tipping point like the events leading to the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo, in what became to be known as the Sarajevo moment, plunging the country into a period of further instability and conflict. If such a scenario happens, it will certainly beyond doubt speed up Mnangagwa's exit as the Chiwenga faction within the party and the military will fight back. It would be interesting to see where and how the military locates itself as the succession battle rages on. The military has always been the power broker as far as party and State succession is concerned. In Zimbabwe's contemporary history, the party is the State. ZANU PF succession politics can be traced back to the Mgagao declaration of 1977, where the military command installed the Mugabe political leadership after a coup on Ndabaningi Sithole, then leader. Post-1980, the internal contradictions between the liberation movements ZANU and ZAPU also displayed significant friction within the military. Furthermore, the 2008 elections and subsequently the 2017 military coup reinforce the thesis of the significance of the army in solving the power dynamics in Zimbabwe. Notwithstanding the coup-proofing strategies by Mnangagwa, the prevailing political and socio-economic conditions are ripe ingredients for another putsch. The same "thieves surrounding the President" narrative has been displayed through the Gold Mafia report among other exposes. Ironically, the judgement which sanitized the 2017 coup is turning out to be its weakest legal point. When challenged on the legality of the 24 November 2017 power transfer, the High Court, under Justice Chiweshe legalised military coups in Zimbabwe. He argued that: "The actions of the Defense Forces (Zimbabwe Defense Force of Zimbabwe) in intervening to stop the take-over of first respondent's constitutional functions by those around him are constitutionally permissible and lawful in terms of Section 212 of the Constitution." That set a dangerous precedence for the country and undermines the principles of democracy, and to avoid a snowball trend of coups in Zimbabwe, perhaps the law needs to be reviewed. Therefore, whilst the focus on Zimbabwe's political landscape is being pointed towards an extension of the presidential term to 2030, it is still too early to assume that Mnangagwa will maintain his power. 2028 could actually be too far to maintain his presidency.

Where is the opposition?

A key question to ask is where is the opposition in the current unfolding political developments in Zimbabwe? The past few days, have seen brickbats being thrown at Nelson Chamisa on social media for his alleged lack of action. The state of opposition politics in Zimbabwe is at its lowest and there is lack of a credible leadership ever since the “resignation” of Chamisa  from active politics in February 2024 after losing control of the party to Songezo Tshabangu in dubious circumstances. The opposition over relied on the popularity and charisma of its leader Nelson Chamisa, and this has backfired heavily after his purported resignation from politics.  For those that remained and claim to be leading the opposition after the departure of Chamisa they are perceived as heavily compromised. Their continued stay in Parliament that is now perceived to be a per-diems and benefits seeking platform has meant further loss of relevance and integrity. There is a stronger need for the pro-democratic forces to building a formidable movement and mobilising Zimbabweans to defend constitutional rights and any threat to the democratic principles as espoused in the country's constitution.

A gaze into the future

A gaze into the future pontificates to the potential of the tensions spiralling out of control and plunging Zimbabwe and the Southern African region into instability. Already, the country’s economy has been on the receiving end as leaders are embroilled in succession politics at the expense of development. The political tension in Zimbabwe is a worrying development in particular for SADC, which is already facing instability due to the conflict in the DRC, Mozambique and a host of other challenges in members states. The region simply cannot afford the burden of another conflict, thus, it is important that the Zimbabwe situation is solved quickly before it reaches a boiling point. While Zimbabwe is currently occupying the chairmanship for SADC it is still prudent especially for the panel of elders to engage the different stakeholders, in particular, encourage President Mnangagwa to stop his ambitious 2030 agenda, which is divisive. The current events points to the failure to exorcise the political ghosts of the 2017 coup and it seems the only way to do so, is for the panel of Elders and international community to encourage a national dialogue that seeks to demilitarise politics and public affairs. 

Blessing Ivan Vava (Sibusiso Mhlanga) is a writer based in Chipinge, Zimbabwe.

Acknowledgements: This article was commisioned by the Southern Africa Information Center  ( issa )