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| Tsvangirai Should have learnt from Odinga |
By Blessing Vava
It’s now a few days to 31 July
2013, a day set for Zimbabwe’s make or break harmonized elections. The day is
finally upon us despite doubts on the credibility of the elections, but it is
here. The elections give an end to the Global Political Agreement and the
Government of National Unity, transitional mechanisms initiated by SADC for
Zimbabwe’s political players to work together to create conditions for the
holding of a credible election.
Surely, we had the inclusive
government since February 2009 and despite the cat and mouse relationship
between the parties, there were moments of closeness and coziness
characterizing the period these parties worked together for us to finally reach
this day. Credit, we give them for attempting to stabilise the economy by stopping
the economic nosedive (hyper-inflation) that had reached alarming levels due to
ZANU PF’s mis-governance.
Commendably political violence was reduced and
indeed this election is one of the most peaceful ones the country has ever
witnessed in recent years. Political party leaders should be applauded for
their continuous calls for peace. The inclusive government also managed to
draft a new constitution, which however
gave too much power to whoever will become the president of the country: some of
which powers Mugabe has already started exercising include constituting the
constitutional court, proclaiming dates of polls and the temporary powers etc.
Above all, there is really
nothing much on the inclusive government for the people of Zimbabwe to celebrate
for it was an unpopular government that they were not voted by the people.
Rather, it failed to respect workers, students and ordinary Zimbabweans at
large. The expenditure on trips and luxuries was exorbitant and often came at
the expense of service delivery, investments in agriculture, industry and key
tertiary services which obviously had an adverse effect such as local
authorities recording the highest and worst cases of corruption since
independence.
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| Outwitting his opponents-President Mugabe |
During this period some became
too comfortable and reluctant to go for elections hiding under the cover of
reforms, reforms they failed to undertake for the past four years as the
inclusive government was basically incepted to deal with those issues.
However, many hope that this
time a government of their choice is going to come out. Nevertheless, looking
back at the inclusive government one can notice that it was a fertile ground
for ZANU PF to dupe their opponents and dump them once achieving what the party
wants. The four years did more harm than good to the MDC. They somehow lost
focus, forgetting they were dealing with deceitful partners who took the four
years to plot their downfall. In most cases the MDC was found defending
government positions they would have normally attacked in previous years. They
found themselves mud slung into embarrassing situations – many still recall the
Chinotimba-Mahlangu scandal over a cellphone, the Prime Minister’s love
triangles (or hexagons) , demonstrations by civil servants over salary
increments, war veterans demanding compensation
and farmers’ castigating the Minister of Finance for failing to avail
farming inputs among other issues.
ZANU PF since signing the GPA
has always been in an election mood, their focus was on retaining power after
the collapse of the GNU. The party has always been mobilizing its supporters
since 2010 while the MDC was basically demobilized. The MDC came out tainted
with the love for opulence and corruption scandals which also involve their
leader Morgan Tsvangirai. In short they were exposed as minors in government
who failed to realize that the GPA setup was not a permanent creature, but a
temporary measure to create a conducive environment for elections.
Certainly this was is it and
they have no one to blame when the election result comes out not in their
favour. It was this comfort zone that alienated the MDC from the reality of the
hardships faces the masses who had voted for them overwhelmingly on 29 March.
Despite increasing alarm by the media, civics and generality of the people over
voter registration irregularities the MDC either turned a blind eye or chose to
be deaf. It seems they failed to learn from the Odinga catastrophe.
It is however, a public secret
that ZANU PF is a sunset party, which has not won a free and fair election in
recent years. But it is the party’s craftiness that will see them winners after
a rigged poll, which is now likely to be endorsed by the regional bodies. ZANU
PF has scored success in rallying the region to endorse an electoral outcome
that is in its favor. The recent SADC Communiqué and President Zuma’s reigning
in on Lindiwe Zulu is a clear example of the region’s succumbing to ZANU PF
pressure. The MDC and its allies have chosen to be economic about the truth by
falsely celebrating SADC Summits outcomes that otherwise undermine its capacity
to govern through a free and fair election. Hiring supposed political
scientists to interpret a clear message of rebuttal and developing theoretical
frameworks in dissecting political temperatures in the region is not sufficient
and will not garner the gusto to avoid a rigged election.
From the look of things, this
election is likely to go in Mugabe’s favour basing on a number of reasons. In
my view it is clear that the two MDCs aided ZANU PF to rig/win the forthcoming
polls. It will be naïve to think that a miracle will happen on the 31st of July
and see Mugabe disposed from power. They won’t be any miracle votes, NO, the
ground has already been prepared for Mugabe to win, and he is now preparing to
give his speech at the UNWTO and officiating on Heroes Day as Head of State.
Zanu PF knew that the
inclusive government was not permanent and desperately wanted it to end, once
discovering they had done their homework. It was only after they successfully
manipulated the electoral system that they wanted elections soonest. The
impetus is their President’s age and health so the sooner the polls are held
and they secure a victory for him by hook or crook the better! Good for them
because the constitution says if the president dies his party forwards a
replacement.
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| Silenced by Mugabe-Lindiwe Zulu |
For a party that had enjoyed
monopoly of governance for 28 years, party echelons saw how boring and
difficult it is to share power. This is why when they joined this government
their focus was on re-strategizing, finding tactful and technical ways of
manipulating the electoral system to their advantage.
The last election was disputed
because of violence and hence Mugabe’s purported victory was heavily
de-legitimised, something which they addressed basing on the lack of a peaceful
environment which almost all the observing bodies seemed to agree to. Minus
violence it will be difficult for anyone to dispute rigged polls by Mugabe. The
nation recalls the 2million signatures against sanctions, we all laughed when
this ‘exercise’ took place, the 1million march, the demarcation of constituencies,
the convenient statements by the army. Has anyone wondered the silence among
the generals over this election? Have they yielded to ‘reforms’? Do we still
remember the outcome of the referendum and the voting patterns? The election
will not be rigged on the 31st of July as some might think; rigging is
something ZANU PF has worked on for all these years and the results were sealed
on 16 March 2013 when Zimbabwe went for a referendum.
Voter
Registration
In Kenya Raila Odinga’s fate
was sealed during voter registration and similarly the way the voter
registration exercise was conducted in Zimbabwe clearly shows how serious ZANU
PF rigging machinery wanted to manipulate or rather safeguard the 16 March
outcome during the coming elections. The figures released by ZEC indicate that
the rural areas especially in Mashonaland (ZANU PF’s strongholds) recorded
highest numbers of first time voters ahead of the towns. The process in towns
was tedious, frustrating and had bottlenecks that disenfranchised thousands of first
time voters to register as voters. In
some areas there are claims that ZANU PF was conducting its own voter
registration probably in connivance with ZEC.
The
Voters Roll - A tale of a neglected stepchild
The voters roll is still not
yet in the public domain despite that it’s barely a week before
we go for
polls. The Research and Advocacy Unit release alarming irregularities on the
voter’s roll with at least 1million invalid voters appearing while the legible
are disenfranchised. This election must be remember in history as the first
election in post-independence Zimbabwe in which voters were not accorded time
to inspect their names. The way the special voting was conducting raises
suspicion. Many a times the MDCs have always complained about the voters’ roll
yet it is this critical document that they gave little if any attention during
their tenure in office except for the pronouncements at rallies.
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| Mugabe loyalist-ZEC Deputy Chair Joyce Kazembe |
Memories
and Tremor-The June 2008 Horror
The fear-factor, with memories
of the 2008 elections still lingering in the minds of most Zimbabweans, most
societies are still in fear and will not vote freely, I also think the MDCs did
not do much in terms of penetrating those areas to demystify the threats by
ZANU PF
The Zimbabwe Electoral
Commission, despite the parties agreeing to reconstitute the commission, the
commission is full of ZANU PF apologists especially at the secretariat level
and provincial, most of the ex-military personnel and personalities who once
served in ZANU PF, (I do not see them announcing a defeat of Robert Mugabe)
even the chairperson’s credentials are questionable especially in light of her
recent utterances over the ‘special’ vote.
Apart from these factors, the
opposition parties’ failure to come up with one coalition gives an advantage to
ZANU PF. The mainstream MDC failed to realise that Mugabe was playing chess
with them by supporting the alienation of Ncube from the Monday meetings. ZANU
PF knew well that disunity at that level will mean an impossible attempt at a
‘Grand’ Coalition. And as the process unfolds we are likely going to see high
figures for ZANU PF especially in the rural areas as witnessed during the
referendum, this they will justify by the turnout in their primary polls and
the turnout at Mugabe’s rallies.
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| Assigned to 'deal' with the voters roll-Tobaiwa Mudede |
In conclusion, the MDCs stay
in government was ephemeral!!! I do not foresee a defeat of Mugabe this time
around, for this election is about his legacy, this is probably why his
speeches are historical narrations of the liberation struggle. They will do all
they can to ensure a victory for him. Change is certainly not coming soon as
some might want us to believe, they surrendered this election to Mugabe long
back. The 31 July poll, will just be a mock-election to rubber-stamp Mugabe’s
stolen victory. Of course the other contestants as usual will complain of vote
rigging but it will be difficult to prove though. They will rush to the
constitutional court (Justice Chiweshe of the 2008 election results drama)
which will prove futile as the script is written already. They missed it in
2008, failed to put the mechanisms to avoid rigging whilst still enjoying state
power. On July 31st ZANU PF will simply unveil the MDCs tombstone which they
murdered and buried on 16th March!!!
Blessing 'Vuvuzela' Vava is a
blogger from Chipinge. He can be contacted on blessingvava@gmail.cim,
twitter@blevava
