Blessing Vava**
The defeat of the opposition by
ZANU PF in the 2013 plebiscite eroded the once vibrant power of the opposition.
Since that heavy defeat of the MDC-T, the ruling party ZANU PF has been
consolidating its support base to an extent that pundits have already predicted
a landslide win for the liberation movement in 2018. Yet, benign to the
so-called resurgence of ZANU PF are internecine struggles and convulsions that
make it vulnerable to its own self-engineered demise. With endless splits, the
once vibrant movement, the MDC-T has been reduced into a ‘pressure group’ that
now needs to rejuvenate itself and undergo a serious metamorphic phase to
reclaim its lost glory. As a mitigating measure, the opposition has forged an
alliance in the hope that they will field a single candidate under the auspices
of the MDC Alliance, with Morgan Tsvangirai as its sole candidate.
The Need for Numbers that Matter.
In so doing, the opposition is responding to the reality that ZANU PF is a colossal animal that requires all forces to unite and confront it in the upcoming elections.
The Need for Numbers that Matter.
In so doing, the opposition is responding to the reality that ZANU PF is a colossal animal that requires all forces to unite and confront it in the upcoming elections.
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| High school reunion of 1999 boys? |
The default logic of politics is
that the numbers matter at the end of the day and the fact that they have
coalesced means that they need numbers. However, the critical question that has
to be asked is whether the MDC alliance will bring the numbers that matter as
argued by McDonald Lewanika, a London School of Political Science Doctoral
Researcher in Gravitas Vol 1 Issue 2 of 2017. Lewanika observes that:
In the final analysis, an opposition coalition alone may be necessary
but
insufficient
to lead the opposition to victory, and a coalition of opposition
parties, which doesn’t take on board broader societal interests, and
interest
groups in urban and rural areas may be doomed to fail. Opposition
parties
can fail to garner the numbers that matter for defeating ZANU-PF if they
do not accede to the reality that putting together a winning coalition
may
entail moving beyond the limited space of political parties to encompass
other social and economic interest groups, in urban and rural areas.
The fundamental lesson learnt is
that coalitions are the key to electoral success for opposition parties but at
the same time designing a winning coalition needs to consider diverse and
complex interests rather than simple arithmetic reductionism. The idea of
coalitions ahead of an electoral process is not a new phenomenon, a glance in
many parts of the continent can attest to the value of cooperation by the
opposition movement and building alliances to achieve common goals. There are
many examples in Africa, where the opposition have 3 successfully coalesced to
defeat the incumbent and some cases are instructive: Gambia (2016), Nigeria
(2015), Lesotho (2012 and 2015), Senegal (2000 and 2012), Benin (2006) and
Kenya post-2002. In these cases, the coalitions were successful because, they
designed alliances that were informed by and based on the different social classes
composing their societies. It is my contention that the recent coalition
signing ceremony that happened in Harare on the 5th of August 2017 was nothing
short of a high school reunion laced with pomp, fun fare and hot air rather
than any heat to melt the hegemon or dominance of ZANU PF. The event which drew
a significant crowd failed to restore hope amongst many Zimbabweans who yearn
for a better alternative to end ZANU PF’s decades of misrule. In my view, the
coming together of these ‘former’ comrades was nothing much to write home
about. In much simpler terms, it was just an elite pact or rather a high school
reunion of 1999 boys and a congregate of the banqueting; simply rearranging
chairs. In reality, they took the prefects to the banquet and forgot the
students from the classes (society). There is a lot of work to be done if that
said coalition is to see the light of the day.
Names
Matter: Where is the New Zimbabwe Alliance?
Firstly, the name itself ‘MDC
Alliance’ is not inspiring at all, it is trapped in the nostalgia of history,
in particular 1999 and in this case, they could have sought Job Sikhala’s
permission to run under the rubric MDC 99. I do not doubt he would have
accented. However, the only danger of this strategy is that in as much it will
send a clear message of the terms of the reunion, it will be oblivious to
Professor Brian Raftopoulos’ observation of the reconfigured political economy
and calls for new forms of organising. In addition, it becomes exclusive to the
present realities that there are now new kids on the block such as Zimbabwe
People’s First, National People’s Party, citizens’ movements and new voting
demographics, thus becomes limited in attracting the numbers that matter in
designing a winning coalition. Naming and branding are very important in
politics and the coalition needed a name that unites the people and at the same
time a name that gives the people hope. Branding is all about appealing to
peoples’ dreams. Politics is all about selling hope to a people. Political
branding is gaffe-prone territory. It is a delicate operation where missteps
and unplanned moments can spell political doom. This is indeed homework for the
coalition. Maybe, The New Zimbabwe Alliance may have helped in giving a
national outlook and as well as aspiration for a better tomorrow, thus sending
a clear, simple and straightforward message that can easily resonate and at the
same time energise the masses. Secondly, the speeches by the principals were
nothing but hot air with the usual rhetoric of ‘Mugabe must go’ and massaging
inflated egos of the politicians without proffering a clear framework on how to
solve the economic political impasse engulfing the nation. There was a sense of
insincerity and it shows that the leaders are not coalesced around certain
ideological principles, a shared national vision which is more than the Mugabe
must go rhetoric. With allegations that the donors were behind this coalition,
it already paints a bad picture on part of the leaders as greedy people who are
driven by their own material conditions. Coalitions should not be formed
because the donors have said so, but they should be formed on the basis of the
people’s aspirations.
Forget
Makarau and Think People.
As it stands the coalition has failed to
inspire hope and questions which we might have to ask are: What has changed and
what is new, in the wake of the same political players that failed to unseat
Mugabe whilst still united? Whilst there is much talk about electoral reforms
and emphasis on transforming Justice Rita Makarau’s ZEC; it has to be borne in
mind that ZANU PF has already declared that it will not reform itself out of
power and any over-investment or over-reliance on that strategy is tantamount
to chasing a waterfall. Without the much talked about electoral reforms, what
is the strategy of the Alliance in as far as ensuring pacification of the
margin of fear and margin of rigging? I would hasten to say that the MDC
Alliance might need to go back to the founding documents of that movement of
1999 in Gwanzura, as those are still as relevant as today. The National Working
Peoples Convention and documents like ‘Beyond ESAP’ clearly articulated a
shared vision of the mass democratic movements, the working class, the
churches, students and other social classes of our broader society. In the same
vein, the MDC Alliance needs to go beyond the 1999 analytic lens and realise
that there are other new social classes such as, rank marshals and touts, Kombi
drivers and operators, artisanal miners, vendors, new farmers, millennials,
cross border traders, and the new citizens’ movements amongst many other
existing groups or that may emerge.
Sincere
Reconciliation is the Foundation for Democratic Politics
Thirdly, one can get the sense
that there was a lot of hypocrisy and if not grandstanding of the highest order
especially from the likes of MDC leader Welshman Ncube, who chose to trivialise
his speech by ‘apologising’ to the people of Zimbabwe. One wonders what exactly
the law professor was apologising for, when in reality his departure from the
united MDC was a genuine expression of the lack of internal party democracy
under the leadership of Morgan Tsvangirai. Perhaps, the professor might need to
tell us what has changed now? The need to forge a coalition is more than just
the call for Mugabe to go, but rather it is about bringing a new politics and
forms of governance practices that are pro-people and different to ZANU PF’s
anti-people politics. It is about delivering social services and a better life
to people as well as ending corruption, but above all the coalition should
provide a framework on how they envisage taking the country forward. Fourthly,
this coalition is not a sincere move but rather it is just meant to address
short-term goals of ‘Mugabe going’ rather than to inculcate enduring democratic
reform agenda. Instead of the opposition coalescing around a shared vision,
ideological underpinnings and principles that will provide a democratic
narrative to salvage Zimbabwe, the parties in Zimbabwe are opportunistic
vehicles for their own selfish ends. It is just a coalition of individuals
without an organic mass movement enough to bring confidence and building the
numbers for the coming elections. There is need for the coalition to extend
beyond the existing political parties and an elite civil society comprising of
individuals who dominated the proceedings at the launch.
Realism
Helps
Fifthly, there is an issue of
the spoilers: small man with a big man syndrome in the mould of PDP
Secretary General Gorden Moyo who is exhibiting shocking levels of infantile
radicalism. While his principal Tendai Biti has shown commitment to be part of
the coalition, Moyo is busy packing emotions as science and objective reality.
Moyo should know that good English and rhetoric is not the same as having the
numbers. He and his lot need to be patient, otherwise they face the wrath of
history and run the risk of perishing. The painful reality for the other small
parties is acknowledging that at least for now there are two political homes in
Zimbabwe: Morgan Tsvangirai and Robert Mugabe and the rest will remain shadows
for now. Nevertheless, this is no blank cheque for the MDC-T to be arrogant but
a call to leadership and exercise magnanimity by realising that all creatures
great and small matter. However, it has to be noted that the opposition coalition
will have a twofold objective outlined in the perking order and weight below in
the 2018 elections. The numeric power that is needed is firstly, to dislodge
ZANU PF from power and this is the most primary objective and best-case
scenario. Secondly, is to reduce ZANU PF’s two-thirds parliamentary dominance,
i.e. capacity to amend the constitution in the legislature and to defend the
zones of autonomy as part of withering authoritarianism. The question of Mugabe
going is now a question of Nigerian Novelist Dan Fulani’s “God’s Case: No Appeal”. If he wins the 2018 election, the
constitution will not allow the nonagenarian to run again for office in 2023,
assuming God is gracious with time and life to him, thus this is likely
Mugabe’s last dance as president of Zimbabwe. If he decides to run again in
2023, Mugabe may not rig the biological life circle of a human being; his day
is now a matter of time and the tale-tale signs have started creeping in. That
day will certainly change the dynamics of our politics. For doubters, a reading
of Malawian and Zairean history will give us lessons on how Africa’s former
strongmen tumbled from grace in their last days: Dr Hastings Kamuzu Banda and
Mobutu Sese Seko Wazabanga.
This article first appeared in
the Gravitas Edition on Coalition Politics
**Blessing
Vava is a Zimbabwean blogger based in Chipinge. He can be contacted on blessingvava@gmail.com. Twitter:
@blevava
