By
Blessing Vava
The ZANU PF national congress
is here, probably the last congress for ZANU PF’s first
secretary Robert
Mugabe. The much awaited congress which had been viewed by many as not just a
congress, but a transitional congress (though not elective) likely to seal ZANU
PF’s succession battle. The road to this congress has been boisterous, melodramatic
coupled with shocks and surprises as, and since the beginning of the year it
had seemed that the embattled vice president Joice Mujuru was tipped to succeed
Mugabe. With the backing of nine
provinces, and the fact that she was the second secretary and vice president of
the country, punters had already put their biggest bet on Mujuru to lead ZANU
PF after Mugabe. It is this false postulation or rather the miscalculation on
Mujuru that backfired on her after failing to understand the political dynamics
in her party. The notion that she was going to be the automatic successor of
Mugabe by virtue of being vice president and possibly the false assumption of popularity
in the structures in ZANU PF was ill-informed.
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| Rivals-Mujuru and Mnangagwa |
Those who had put their money
on Joice, including the private media had ruled out Justice Minister Emmerson
Mnangagwa in the succession race because
his alleged backers had been thumped in the controversial elections that saw
him losing control of nine of the ten provinces of ZANU PF.
Rekindling
the Memory of 2004
Rewinding the clock ten years
back, Mnangagwa, the preferred choice by the provinces in 2004, was made to eat
a humble pie after Mugabe controversially amended the ZANU PF constitution to
pave way for Mujuru. Six of ZANU PF’s provincial chairpersons aligned to
Mnangagwa were suspended and equally accused of trying to topple the ZANU PF
presidium. In the process Mnangagwa failed to get the vice presidency Mujuru
assuming the post at the benevolence of Mugabe. The biggest lesson that came
out that time was that in ZANU PF, one does not necessarily have to be popular amongst
the structures to get to the top but rather, one’s loyalty to the president
that mattered. Almost ten years down the
line history has repeated itself (Mujuru), despite the backing of nine
provinces has suffered the same fate. Her
allies have been purged and now facing serious treason charges.
Interestingly after the youth
and women’s congresses held this year, it had seemed Mujuru was now a clear
favourite with nine provinces in her back. However as it stands now the writing
is now clear on the wall that VP Mujuru’s borrowed robes have waned. Most of
her backers have failed to make it to the Central Committee, and like face
powder all her assumed control she thought she had in the party has disappeared
to an extent of even failing to secure a nomination from her district. It’s now
clear that most of her backers, especially the provincial chairpersons will be
watching the congress with binoculars, they won’t be part of it.
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| Learnt nothing and forgot Everything |
Mujuru’s tragedy that she will
live to regret is the failure to understand the undemocratic nature and
character of the party and President Mugabe. Mujuru learnt nothing from Mugabe
and the ZANU PF system of patronage and forgot that the party’s supreme
decision making is embodied in the president. Here is a party and a president
who has used patronage, corruption, state machinery and dictatorial tendencies to
intimidate perceived enemies to stay in power at whatever cost. Mugabe thrives
on fanning factionalism in the party. He has used patronage systematically to
an extent that most leaders in ZANU PF are where they are because of Mugabe’s
benevolence and not necessarily about their capabilities. He knows who has been
doing what and how they have all acquired quick riches. The balancing act for
Mugabe’s power has been the absence of a united voice within ZANU PF calling
for Mugabe to step down to an extent that factionalism has maintained his grip on
power. And the history of ZANU PF in the past ten years has been a serious
contestation for control of party structures (DCCs and PCCs) and ultimate
succession of Mugabe.
Mujuru’s greatest blunder was
the failure to locate where power resides in ZANU PF. In a dictatorship like
ZANU PF power resides not in the people but in the leader who happens to be
Mugabe. So the thinking by Mujuru that she will have a majority of votes at
congress was not only wishful but rather foolish and misplaced. They thought
Mugabe was going to act by the rules but alas he has shown them that he is the
master and what he says carries the day and not otherwise. On the
8th September 2014 Mujuru, at a Politburo Meeting boastfully challenged
Opah Muchinguri to the ballot at congress as she thought she her perceived
control of the structures was sufficient to retain her post and subsequently
succeed Mugabe. Thus:
‘’Don’t
speak — go out and fight, then you will see; Now I say to other people, if they
want to take the risk, then take the risk, That is good. And I am happy to
fight. But if you take the risk you also have the chance to lose.’’
Daily
News 9 September 2014
Unfortunately Dr VP, it does
not happen that way in the revolutionary party. The bark starts and stops with
Mugabe. ZANU PF is not a democratic
party, and Mujuru herself was catapulted to the vice presidency through
dictatorial means something she has easily and quickly forgotten. Similarly in 2004, the constitution has been
amended again, making this congress ‘selective’ rather than elective because the
president has been given sweeping powers to choose the team he wants to work
with.
In all this drama, there are
some who think ZANU PF is heading for a split, possibly being orchestrated by the
Mujuru faction which I believe will not happen anytime soon. The view that a
post Mugabe ZANU PF is headed for a split is misplaced and fails to understand
that the dominant centre of power in ZANU PF relies on patronage and the control
of state power and machinery to thwart dissenting voices or rebellious elements.
Those
who have fallen by the wayside including Mujuru herself will either remain in
ZANU PF or if they so wish die poor because most of them are products of a
patronage system and corruption. Any attempts to defy the status quo will result
in some of them being persecuted or dying poor, a compromise non amongst them
is willing to undertake. The current expose’ on corruption and underhand
dealings by the VP is a clear reminder to her that if she decides to go against
the wishes and decisions of the ‘Prince’,
her actions will be complemented by serious ramifications to her person, family
and business empire.
Postulating
the Congress:
The outcome of the congress is
almost predictable and the ZANU PF presidium will have new faces after the 7th
of December. It will be dominated by
Mnangagwa loyalists namely Oppah, Mphoko and Mudenda. Mnangagwa is the front
runner to succeed Mujuru in line with the recent amendments of the ZANU PF constitution.
Apart from these changes in
the Presidium and Politburo respectively there is a likelihood of a cabinet
reshuffle. Most Ministers who were
fingered in the plot to assassinate Mugabe will face the boot, and the list has
Goche, Bhasikiti, Mutasa, Mavhaire and several other deputies will be removed
but also not ruling out that one or two names will bounce back at the mercy of
Mugabe, who still has 10 more direct appointments to make in the Central
Committee. The cabinet reshuffle will likely
take place before Mugabe goes on his annual leave with Mujuru probably facing
the axe and replaced by Emmerson Mnangagwa. The First Lady, Grace Mugabe has
already indicated that the country’s vice presidents can all be men sustained
by a constitutional amendment on the ZANU PF removing the gender clause. It
will also be interesting to note how the congress will deal with the renegade
MPs considering their centrality and designation in national legislation. Is
the congress momentum going to be sustained beyond 7 December or we will
witness a halt of the sackings and attempts to regroup with all party cadres?
Zimbabwe’s
VP and Interim Heir
Emmerson Mnangagwa has for
years been a loyalist of Mugabe having served as his Personal Assistant during
the war and Mugabe’s Chief Election Agent in the 1980 and the watershed 2013
elections. Mnangagwa is believed to have rescued ZANU PF and the president
after the 29 March 2008 electoral loss at the hands of the MDC by swiftly
coordinating the Joint Operation Command (JOC) in the run up to the 27 June
2008 ‘run off.’ He is tipped to take over as President after Mugabe with some
media reports suggesting that Mugabe told the Chinese during his state visit to
that country this year that Mnangagwa was his successor.
The choice of having
Mnangagwa, a hardliner is a progression of radical politics and will both
preserve and strengthen Mugabe’s legacy of dictatorship and ruthlessness. Joyce
Mujuru’s sympathy from the opposition and links with the West cost her dearly
in the eyes of Mugabe. Mujuru is rumoured to have failed to guarantee the
security of the First Family in the event of departure of the president with
recordings of her voice threatening to reverse ZANU PF policy direction and
international relations. Because of Mnangagwa’s proximity and loyalty to the
First family makes him a good replacement to the nonagenarian leader.
This congress and the whole
succession issue is about the security and future of Mugabe’s family, this is
why his wife Grace has been playing a pivotal role in this power matrix. Its either
she together with her allies, the Mnangagwa group are probably privy to some alarming health records
on Mugabe or maybe he wants to retire in 2015. Hence, the spirited campaign to decimate the
Mujuru group in the process throwing them further away from the succession
dynamics and dealing with this issue once and for all.
The
Future:
The ZANU PF congress will come
and go; not even the reshuffling of cabinet will change the fortunes of this
country in the not so near future. The economic woes are likely going to
continue and 2015 will be a very difficult year with the continuation of the Zimbabwe-China/Russia
relations with the EU being marginal. Investment partners given the preferred
FDI by the Mugabe-Mnangagwa group in ZANU PF. The new incumbent will obviously
consolidate power, and the template will not change the use of state apparatus
to intimidate opponents, the manipulation of the country’s electoral process
will continue. The Mnangagwa group will derive benefit in engineering
by-elections in parliamentary seats belonging to Mujuru’s allies as a means of
gauging the state and performance of the party ahead of the 2018 elections. On
the whole, the 2018 elections will continue to be a no contest with the new
incumbent fiercely defending his position and given the current absence of a
viable opposition voice in Zimbabwe, ZANU PF’s hegemony will go unchallenged. The
Mnangagwa group will need to be mindful of the ramifications of a disjointed
and weakened ZANU PF in the 2018 elections possibly with the resurgence of the Bhora Musango phenomenon by disgruntled
cadres.
Zvazviri!
Blessing ‘Vuvuzela’ Vava
writes from Chipinge and can be contacted on blessingvava@gmail.com
