Only political action will remove ZANU PF from power

By Blessing Vava

The leaked audio featuring a conversation between Mnangagwa’s wife Auxillia and an army commander named as one Murombo has exposed the power struggles in the “New Dispensation” administration. In the audio, Auxillia Mnangagwa claims that the army is trying to 'get Mnangagwa ' through’ her, clearly asserting that all is not well in the cockpit and that the army is out to remove Mnangagwa. These revelations thus vindicate my postulations in my previous blog article, where I warned that Zimbabwe was on the brink of another military takeover based on Mnangagwa’s dismal failure to handle and manage the transition, and failing to cure the coup. I posited that the ghost of November 2017 continues to hunt us, and this is a call to the progressive forces to layout and undertake a political programme of action to remove ZANU PF from power.

 It is now crystal clear that the system that replaced Mugabe is not new at all, despite trying to decorate it with funky terms like the “2nd Republic, New Dispensation etc.” It is as old as it was during Mugabe, with the only new thing being the voodoo scarf which he awfully dons even in the hot Savanna temperatures and has also become Mnangagwa’s symbol of failure. As a leader who took over from Mugabe, Mnangagwa has so far done badly, because after securing political power, he failed to utilize it to transform society, and most importantly the economy. To think that this is a man who for decades wanted to be president is utterly shocking as it has emerged that he only wanted to wear a scarf, have those endless foreign trips and debauchery. The Mnangagwa administration sold a dummy to the people of Zimbabwe, it failed on its promises to transform and reform the systems of governance, improve the economy for the upliftment of the livelihoods of Zimbabweans. To his credit, what Mnangagwa only did was to remove an unpopular, hated and feared dictator and that change of power were greeted with much hope and satisfaction. However, let me hasten to say that the coup was not in any way revolutionary in character and form, though the masses supported it, the revolutionary element was probably only limited to the rhetoric of the military conspirators, that it was indeed a ‘’peoples revolution.’’

Consequently, it is correct to argue that the coup was undue influence in the politics of Zimbabwe, in that it abrogated the country’s supreme law, the constitution and thus compromised the spirit of constitutionalism in Zimbabwe. It was an illegal act that should have never happened and set a wrong precedent for our country. Dumisani Muleya, in his article, Coup: Of usurpers and judges in the Zimbabwe Independent of the 20th of July 2018 posited that whenever there is a military coup anywhere in the world, the executive, legislature and judiciary — are usually shaken to their foundations or collapse. This is largely true, particularly when we take a closer look at the judiciary. On top of it all, since assuming power, the actions of the coup government have equally shown a complete disregard of the constitution based on the many illegalities that we can count since the time of them assuming power. On the judiciary, a case in point being the shocking High court ruling of 24 November 2017 which ruled that the military takeover leading to ex-President Robert Mugabe's resignation was legal, and therefore not a coup d’état. At the same time, another court ruled that Mugabe's sacking of his former deputy, current President Emmerson Mnangagwa was illegal and this points to fears over judicial independence. Above all, Zimbabwe is now being governed by decrees, with the amending of some principal legislation being done by Ministers thereby usurping the role of parliament as what happened on S1 142 of 2019 a clear violation of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe Act. 

However, it can also be argued that the coup was necessary for exposing where the real power lies. Zimbabweans are now dealing with the real power behind Mugabe’s façade, the real enemy and elephant in the room (the military) is now right before us in full glare. There is no longer hiding, Mugabe was just its figurehead. This then calls for revised strategies especially for the progressive social and political forces on how to confront this beast which is now in full glare. The regime’s propensity for the use of force in response to peaceful protests shows that they are in panic So, their only option is fear and violence. However, they have now been exposed that in the long run if they are continually exposed the resort to brute force will expire. To date, the coup regime has surpassed Mugabe in his 37 years in power with a high number of activists being charged with treason. The threats on the deployment of the military to quell civil unrest by the minister of defence Oppah Muchinguri shows that brute force is the only language they understand. It is in this light that I argue that brutal power will have to be brought to the table of reform, force is overwhelming but it eventually wields to the people.

In light of the prevailing situation, Zimbabwe's progressive social and political forces need to quickly re-engage, re-mobilise, re-organise and re-group to build an alternative country through sustained political action. Relying on the crippling economy or some Sarajevo moment will simply not work. The citizens require decisive leadership, there is no Sarajevo moment waiting to happen unless there is sustained radical political action on the ground. ZANU PF will not budge unless pressure has been mounted, otherwise, a rush into another GNU will only be suicidal and will mark the end of opposition politics in Zimbabwe.  

Subsequently, the progressive forces must work on a massive mobilisation programme of action, that will result in the seizure of political power from ZANU PF. Capturing the state is as it were the premise upon which Zimbabwe can be protected from corruption, covetousness, mediocrity, directionless and add up to disregard of the economic interests of the people by the current government. Anybody who accepts and considers that ZANU PF will lead society into economic emancipation is living in Cloud cuckoo land.

Blessing Vuvuzela Vava is a blogger who is based in Chipinge. He can be contacted on blessingvava@gmail.com

18 months down the line after November 2017: Are we headed for another coup?

By Blessing Vava

The November 2017 military coup which forced tyrant Robert Mugabe from power is still haunting Zimbabwe almost 18 months down the line. The remnants of the coup and its footprints will not disappear sooner than we expected. After topping Mugabe, Mnangagwa had an enormous task facing him trying to please his erstwhile conspirators by appointing them into the cabinet. He also attempted to cure the coup and legitimise his power through the elections. With almost 18 months after the coup, Zimbabwe has been faced with political and economic instability and the country is literally seating on a knife-edge. It seems the cart is slowly wheeling off towards the cliff, thus signalling a not so good-looking future. While there have been arguments that the coup managed to address ZANU PF internal political contradictions at the time, the passage of time has disproved that thesis. Already, the ugly head of factionalism is rearing its head and the statements of the ZANU PF Youth and Women’s league are the tell-tale signs. Already, the ground is becoming fertile for another ruction and begs again if this would not be from the barracks. But the real question would be from which section of the Barrack?

ED’s Missed opportunities

Mnangagwa has missed opportunities to “cure the coup”, particularly the failure to create stable transitional mechanisms.  Mnangagwa and his co-conspirators unwittingly attempted to “cure” the coup through a manipulated “election” and this strategy have backfired and the sooner they come to terms with reality the better. Unbeknown to Mnangagwa was that the ball was in his court and he had many options to redeem himself as a unifying leader. However, his lack of foresight has exposed him as a greedy person with no strategy of moving Zimbabwe forward. One of the simplest and many options available to him at the time was calling for a genuine national dialogue of all stakeholders, not for the purposes of power-sharing but rather to chat the way forward for Zimbabwe towards political and economic reforms to address the 37-year rot created by Mugabe. This kind of dialogue would have come out with clear timelines on fundamental reforms at the same time as one of the main steps in curing the coup. It would have also helped to cool down the political temperatures and depolarise our politics. However, that did not happen, as Mnangagwa became consumed and intoxicated by power, allegedly building his power around a partisan and parochial tribal agenda.  Mnangagwa has been busy focussing on consolidating his power at the expense of building a nation, forgetting Lord Acton’s warning: “Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely”.

A regime in fear

 The unfortunate and terror events of 1st of August 2018 and 14th-16th of January 2019 exposed the true colours of the Mnangagwa administration. It became apparent that the military is the underwriter and as such when their power was threatened, they resorted to their real character: violence; murder and impunity. Their actions since November 2017 typifies of a lot that is living in fear, the fear not from the opposition but amongst themselves and particularly the men in uniform.  The fact that they are constantly reshuffling the command within the security forces is a testament to the heightening levels of insecurity. More so, the alleged reports indicating that the government gave soldiers RTGS$400 cushioning allowances versus RTGS$97 allocated to the rest of civil servants indicates a divide and rule strategy that seeks to pacify the army. The reasoning is all apparent to everyone: buying loyalty of the gun as a hungry soldier cannot be trusted. But the question is whether the strategy is sustainable in the long run.  

The Achilles’ heel of coups

The coup plotters justified their action of overthrowing President Mugabe’s government in November 2017 being necessitated by the need to address the economic and political crisis facing the country then. However, fast forward to Mid-2019, the situation has moved to another new level as workers’ and ordinary citizens’ earnings, pensions and savings have been eroded and withered by inflation and currency devaluation. The worsening economic conditions will most likely lead us to squabbling within the cockpit as opportunities for arbitrage decline, thus creating ripe conditions for another coup. McBride and Coulier in their 2004 paper “Crises, Coups, and Entry-deterring Reforms in Sub-Saharan Africa’’, in their analysis of coups in Africa advance reasons that generally lead to military intervention: personal greed; hope to extract once they gain power or directly control the state. This fits well in our case, as military chiefs have now become an economic class with its own distinct interests. A reading of Jabusile Shumba’s book “Zimbabwe’s Predatory State: Party, Military, Business” and  Richard Saunders and Tinashe Nyamunda’s book “Facets of Power: Politics, Profits and People in the Making of Zimbabwe’s Blood Diamonds” give a some glimpses and insights on how this military business class has become embedded in the economy. Therefore, it is not without doubt that the coup was a 'military class project' with a personal accumulation thrust.  The soldiers are now openly and actively involved in the control of the country’s mines, and other strategic points of economic interest.  The military assisted transition in Zimbabwe seems to have failed to bring any meaningful change in people’s livelihoods and this is not unique, and Decaldo argues in his 1986, ‘African Studies and Military coups in Africa’ that, “the military has not been able to generate economic development”. Military assisted transitions always come on the backdrop of well-meaning rhetoric but always fall short on action. It is fast becoming clear for everyone that apart from personal accumulation and self-enrichment, the current administration is as clueless in so far as economic development is concerned. For instance, the sucking in of the Minister of State Security in the Gaika Mine in Kwekwe despite a standing court order barring the mine invaders point to a bleak economic future.

The recent ambush and guerilla-style re-introduction of the Zimbabwe Dollar and the banning of the multi-currency regime are alleged to have been done as a strategy to pacify the men and women in uniform who had started to demand being paid in American dollars to cushion them against dollarisation. The drastic measures on currency reforms have been described by the Zimbabwe Coalition on Debt Development (ZIMCODD) as policy inconsistencies and premature reaction on the part of the government. In their statement, ZIMCODD said instead there was a need for addressing the root cause of the current currency crisis which is, “rampant corruption, mismanagement of public finances and impunity being enjoyed by those that are fuelling the crisis through arbitrage and resource bleeding.’’  Dealing with corruption and arbitrage means taking the feeding trough away from the wannabe military capitalists and creating ructions in the cockpit; yet, not doing so, means ripening the polity for revolt. Hence, I argue that without proper reforms and a different way of doing things Zimbabwe is destined for another military coup, but this time not from the top brass but the junior ranks. There is a need for inclusivity and genuine dialogue of all stakeholders, with the genesis of all being to address the political reform agenda to boost confidence in the economy. Political reforms are essentially the roadmap to curing the coup and any short cut will have disastrous consequences. There is a dark cloud of uncertainty and fear not only amongst Zimbabweans but largely amongst those who plotted the coup, no one really knows what tomorrow is in store for them. The economic meltdown is in itself a ticking time bomb that when it explodes the whole country will be burnt. Historically, coups in their very nature do not just end without another one occurring if their initial fundamental causes are not addressed. The economy remains the Achilles’ heel, and it will just take one daring junior officer and the rest can be history.

Forewarned is Forearmed!

It is clear that the current trajectory by the Mnangagwa administration in dealing with the political and economic crisis facing the country will most likely lead us to another ‘military assisted transition’. The conditions that led to the November 2017 coup seem to be multiplying exponentially as each day passes and this is creating a ticking time bomb.  If things are left unresolved one may not rule out another coup happening as history has shown us that if coups are not cured, they are bound to happen again. There is a need to cure the coup by embarking on drastic and genuine political and economic reforms that will enable the economy to be on its feet again.

Blessing Vava is a blogger based in Chipinge. He can be contacted on blessingvava@gmail.com

Mnangagwa’s deceptive road to Armageddon

By Blessing Vava

Zimbabwe’s quest for a new path under the auspices of the new dispensation and reengagement by Mnangagwa has vapoured into thin air faster than anyone could have imagined as the country is back again under the international spotlight. The November 2017 Euphoria has fast fizzled to Armageddonian despair.

Mnangagwa’s reckless and divisive utterances during the Mwenezi rally held over the weekend, where he openly issued threats targeted at human rights lawyers and doctors should leave any peace loving and citizens in general with opposing views worried.  Mnagagwa said: “They told them that if anyone gets arrested, they should go to a certain place, there are lawyers waiting to defend them “If anyone gets hurt, they should go to a certain place, there are doctors waiting to treat them. “We are now going after those doctors who were involved in those activities. “Those lawyers that were inciting violence, we are now going after them. So those who choose violence, we are prepared.”

It raises the fears that Zimbabwe has quickly slided back into that era of gross human rights abuses, disappearance of people whose views are seen as politically incorrect, illegal policing of fellow citizens by violent party activists instead, one party state kind of situation, forced migration and displacement of opposition leaders and supporters.

After a spirited and yet deceitful campaign portraying himself as a reformist, Mnangagwa had indeed managed to deceive Zimbabweans and the international community. But like the proverbial leopard that doesn’t change its spots, Mnangagwa has exposed his true colours.  

Since the November military coup in 2017,  Mnangagwa has been trying so hard to portray the ‘good boy’ image,  that of a reformer who is determined to drive Zimbabwe to the promised land of milk and honey. That approach was beginning to bear fruits with appearances at Davos and at least  ‘favourable’ coverage from some once hostile international media outlets.

Mugabe’s  37 years iron fist rule reduced a once beautiful nation into a pariah state  with alarming  human rights abuses, bad governance, a disappearance of the rule of law and rampant corruption by political elites.

 From where we stand, today,  Zimbabwe finds herself, once again in a precarious situation with Mnangagwa’s rule under serious scrutiny, both locally and internationally as he seems to have failed to resist dipping from book of rules he and other leaders co-authored with Mugabe.  The recent events in the Southern African country paint  a gloomy picture, dashing hopes for a new dispensation and a different path that departs from Mugabe’s pariah days.

I argue that Mnangagwa missed, rather a number of ‘golden opportunities’ to redeem himself from his horrendous past in Zimbabwe’s darkest history. The man simply failed the test, here is why?

Firstly, after removing Mugabe through a military coup, Mnangagwa had an opportunity of emerging as a responsible leader ,’ to unite a divided underachieving impoverished nation that had been polarised by hate politics, violence and intolerance by Mugabe. In my opinion, Mnangagwa’s first port of call should have been to call for an all-inclusive national dialogue that would initiate  discussions on the country’s polarised political environment, the economy, national peace and reconciliation programme, and re-engagements efforts after the pariah years of Mugabe’s misrule. The national dialogue process’ thrust was to  discuss and lay out transitional mechanisms whose sole purpose was to deal with electoral reforms with particular time-frames leading to a national election.

Secondly,  just a day after the election was conducted and before the release of results of a generally peaceful election were announced Mnangagwa, squandered another opportunity by unleashing soldiers on the streets of Harare resulting in the deaths of 6 innocent civilians. Even with a simmering dispute around the results, most observer missions, particularly the African brothers were preparing to turn a blind eye on the chicanery around the results and endorse the election. However as the African brothers were still chuckling behind the scenes the demon in him (Mnangagwa) suddenly flared up and he deployed the army to kill innocent civilians who were protesting on the streets of Harare.  With a likely endorsement from his erstwhile African brothers, there was really no need for Mnangagwa to deploy the army as this exposed him and put his leadership under the spotlight. The 1^st of August protest should have been dealt with differently. I argued during that time,  Mnangagwa had literally gotten away with murder (rigging) had he not unleashed trigger happy  soldiers who spoiled the party for him by killing civilians.

As the shootings happened, Mnangagwa did not come out in the open to take responsibility that he had indeed deployed the army leaving many to speculate that it was his deputy Chiwenga. It did not end there, Mnangagwa proceeded to appoint a commission of inquiry led by former South African president, Kgalema Mothlante. I argue that there was insincerity around the setting up of the commission.  If the truth be told, the setting up of the commission was meant to be a Public Relations (PR) exercise to ‘please’ the international community, in particular the British and Westerners.

Equally, the commission’s terms of reference were quite clear that it appeared a witch hunting exercise to blame the MDC Alliance for having caused the chaos. This then brings me to my third point, of yet another missed opportunity by Mnangagwa, in that in the first instance he should have “consulted” all the stakeholders  on the composition and terms of reference for the commission. Rather than the backlash he got after appointing some individuals with questionable backgrounds to be part of the commission.

 Consequently,  despite the controversies around the composition of the commissioners, the commission’s recommendations also presented an (fourth) opportunity around implementation. In hindsight the fact that the recommendations are still to be implemented and there seems to be no desire to do so. This, raises fears that it was just a window dressing exercise and this has come out clearly from his utterances in Mwenezi. 

Despite, Mnangagwa’s outright denial that he deployed soldiers on the 1^st of August 2018 and blaming the opposition for causing the violence that happened during the shut-down in January 2019, his shocking utterances in Mwenezi and his interview on France 24 have exposed him as the architect of the whole saga.  Mnangagwa boasted: “We should be on the lookout as our enemies are not resting, but ensure our eyes are always wide open. We will crush our enemies, and they are being crushed.” It is now quite evident, beyond any figment of doubt  that he was well aware of the goings on and all this is part of a wider crackdown on the main opposition, the MDC Alliance and the civil society. To sum it all, the unfolding events in Zimbabwe show that  ZANU PF is in now back to its default mode of violence.

Essentially, the utterances by Mnangagwa in Mwenezi are a declaration that, firstly ZANU PF is politicking about the new dispensation, secondly they are not prepared for any reforms before the next election,  thirdly there is going to be more clampdown on activists, with raids on CSOs,  fourthly rural areas are once again declared no go areas for the main opposition and civil society. In light of these, I also wish to highlight that the proposed meeting by the First Lady Auxillia Mnangagwa to meet with the wives of traditional leaders, is worrisome as it might be part of a broader strategy by ZANU PF  to close the rural areas in preparation for the next election in 2023.

Therefore, as this is happening, Zimbabweans should not look for  any miracle in the revival of the economy. The  structural economic implications of the Mnangagwa administration are dire; there is no hope. The levels of poverty in Zimbabwe will worsen, income has been eroded, inflation is galloping out of control,   industrial productivity is slowing down (Miners scaling down), prices are off into the sky, investors are giving Zimbabwe a wide berth and yet the party state has increased extractive taxes. Notwithstanding Zimbabwe's political elites getting 'solidarity' from the region the contemporary complex concoction of widening factional fights in the political elite ranks; the widespread political polarity and the on setting economic meltdown will slowly but surely blow Zimbabwe into another vortex of poverty, disease and political conflict.

In conclusion, I argue that by inciting violence, the outcomes so far cement Mnangagwa’s continued trajectory on  Mugabe’s type of politics of a vampire state. The vampire state entails the Mugabe style of politics: of criminalising some fellow citizens; degrees in violence; plunder of national assets; anti-west rhetoric; nationalistic-military authoritarianism; endless foreign trips to despotic nations, like Russia, Belarus and China in search of elusive alternative capital; and finally living in opulence and extravagancy whilst the nation wallows in disasters and poverty. In essence, Mnangagwa is aligning  his regime with the eastern bloc mainly to achieve, one key objective; to seek sanctuary from the likely censure from the West, given his now resort to dictatorship, as warned by his spokesperson, George Charamba, that the January 2019 military crackdown was a “ foretaste of things to come”. It’s back to Armageddon!

Blessing Vava is based in Shashekwa village, Chipinge. He can be contacted on blessingvava@gmail.com, Twitter: @blevava