Time for Zim’s civil society to go back to the basics

 By Blessing Vava

The defeat of the opposition in the June 2013 elections was a huge setback in the struggle for democratic change in Zimbabwe.  The result not only left the opposition in disarray, but led to another split which saw the birth of the MDC Renewal to add on to the already many existing and yet ineffective divided opposition parties in Zimbabwe.  

Equally, the defeat of the opposition had a direct bearing on the operations of the civil society since many of these organisations have for long been fighting from the corner of the MDC-T.

 Over the years, the relationship of the opposition and that civil society has been that of a love and hate relationship.

Moreover the MDC was formed by civil society organisations and other social movements of that time who came together to mount political resistance to ZANU PF’s dictatorship. 

The struggle for a new people driven constitution became the epicentre of the mass mobilisation campaign that necessitated the formation of the MDC in 1999 to challenge political power in the upcoming elections of the year 2000.

 It was the resolve, volunteerism, selflessness determination, the united forces of students, the working class, the churches and other social movements who, despite the violent campaign by ZANU PF made significant strides in posing a serious challenge to the ZANU PF government.

However during the past decade the civil society has not been homogenous in its approach and operations, shifting positions, and at times going against declarations and ideological positions that compromised their existence.

In fact the civil society reneged from its primary and core business of bringing the government to account, rather went into the armpits of government.

The constitution making process is one livid example when Zimbabwe’s civil society went against their long held belief, which set minimum benchmarks on   the writing of the country’s supreme law.

It was agreed during the National Working Peoples Convention of 1999 that the writing of a new constitution should be democratic and people driven. However the first compromise was to support a politician driven constitution making process during the time of the Government of National Unity in 2009.

There are different explanations given by sides, those who supported and those who were opposed to the politician’s led constitution making process.

However I believe that the operating environment has totally changed as compared to the years preceding the 2013 election. Yes, the dynamics changed hence the need for new tactics, gone should be the days were the civil society goes into bed with political parties.

 There is no doubt that civil society at the moment is at its weakest, with donor fatigue, collapse of some organisations and fatigue amongst the membership and this is mainly attributed to the loss of the MDC. I argue that however there is greater need for self-introspection because  the current civil society has been dominated by elite cliques and cabals with very limited organic mass relationships.

 To put it candidly, I would say that the civil society of today should shy away from too many elite meetings that are disconnected with the people. The civil society in the past few years has been characterised by elite declarations and blueprints which have generally failed because they have no mass ownership.  There is greater need for a paradigm shift, move out of the comfort zone of issuing countless press statements and hosting press conferences while shying away from the grassroots.  

 History has taught us that powerful, social-political movements are a consequence of mass agitation and unless we resolve this conundrum we can continue launching as many blueprints but they are weak because they are not backed by popular legitimacy. The question has always been about popular legitimacy, without the masses, there is little that the civil society can do to influence any fundamental change in our society. It is the masses that drive the civil agenda not vice versa.

Therefore, the civil society has to go back to the basics, it can be done, and the No Vote in 2000 came as a result of mass mobilisation, the agitation, committment and selflessness.

The civil society should be guided by effective planning produced as a distillation of people's active participation - not just a donor funded plan of action shoved down people's throats. That has been one of the reasons of our failures. The masses will always defend the peoples manifesto and not some blue print authored by elites. Amilcar Cabral said hide nothing from the masses of our people, and we must not claim easy victories.

The revolutionary task ahead is enormous; there is need to consult residents about residents’ issues; workers about labour issues; women about women issues; farmers about farming issues; vendors about vendors’ issues. The intellectuals must be the guide and catalyst NOT the replacement of the people - organic agitation and exchanges lead to a popular movement which in the hour of need will defend its demands. The civil society should therefore continue holding government accountable and stop this business of going into bed with political parties.

NB: No part of this article may be used without prior permission from the author and please acknowledge the source.

Blessing Vava writes from Chipinge in Zimbabwe. He can be contacted on blessingvava@gmail.com

Zimbabwe job losses: Govt's crocodile tears

17 August 2015

 by Blessing  Vava

The Supreme Court in Zimbabwe in July this year ruled that employers have a right to terminate employment contracts by giving the requisite notice of intention to terminate employment.

 

Zimbabwe's judiciary system compromised

So far, Zimbabwe has recorded massive job losses with reports from labour unions estimating close to 20 000 workers fired from both private companies and a bigger number from parastatals.

Shifting blame

This has been happening in the wake of propaganda by the ZANU PF government, which strangely shifts the blame for the job losses to the country’s labour laws; particularly a ruling that has thrown the Zimbabwe’s workers in the streets.

This position is untenable.

The ruling party is now seeking to amend the country’s labour laws in a bid to ‘end’ these firings.

What hypocrisy? 

Colonial legislation

Quite telling though, is the hypocrisy shown by the ruling party. They blame the ruling on the flimsy pretext that it is a result of the colonial legislation that Zimbabwe adopted and never changed since the country gained its independence.

Shockingly, ZANU PF has exhibited serious levels of hypocrisy, acting as if they are concerned about the firing of workers, whereas the government- itself the biggest employer- has already started sending its employees home.

Parastatals are firing workers

To date, most parastatals including the Zimbabwe Broadcasting Corporation, Grain Marketing Board, ZIMPAPERS and the National Railways of Zimbabwe, have dismissed thousands of employees. The figures are set to rise as more employers take advantage of the relaxed labour regime.

The Supreme Court ruling has in a way confirmed the true colours of our government, which is now in an overdrive capitalist cycle. And Zimbabweans should brace for more tough times ahead as we have embraced another ESAP, albeit one,with more devastating effects than its World bank imposed predecessor.

In 1991, the state embraced the Economic and Structural Adjustment Program (ESAP), which advocated for tighter fiscal policy, reduction of public expenditure through faster privatization of parastatals, and civil service downsizing. This program left a majority of Zimbabweans jobless.

Policy inadequacy

The collapse of Zimbabwe’s economy originated from 'market fundamentalism', but the recent crisis has been due to a total collapse of the nationalist interventionist paradigm, itself a creature of the Third Chimurenga (the chaotic land reform) and ZIMASSET policies.

As if our government has not learned from history, they are still embracing free market, neo-liberal models that have failed in the past. We should not forget that the Minister of Finance, Mr Patrick Chinamasa, said government plans to cut the public sector wage bill to 40 percent of total revenue from the current 80 percent.

Planned

Therefore, the Supreme Court ruling is not surprising: it had been planned already. And it is clear that the Harare is succumbing to pressure from institutions like the IMF and World Bank, and of course the East, which are prescribing these austerity measures as pre-conditions for a financial bailout.

 It is shocking why the international community is quiet while all this is happening in Zimbabwe. Their only loud cries were when Cecil the Lion was killed. It boggles the mind.

It is obvious that ZANU PF is behind the Supreme Court ruling (never mind the interpretation of the law). They have a two thirds parliamentary majority, which enables them to change the laws.

Compromised judiciary

If they were truly against the ruling as they have been saying, the ruling would have been delayed, thus paving way for the proposed labour reforms they are making noise about.

I say so because the Judiciary itself is compromised. The Chief Justice, Godfrey Chidyausiku, is a former ZANU PF MP, and all the other Judges are appointed by the President. That’s where their allegiance lies, and not vice versa.

In the past, ZANU PF has used the judiciary to settle political scores, and no serious ruling is made without Mugabe’s approval. In Zimbabwe there is no rule of law, it is taboo to pass a judgement that is not preferred by the president. It can never happen.

Evidently, this hullabaloo about changing the labour laws is all hogwash, because the damage has already been done. And by the time the law is passed, only Mugabe and his cronies would still be employed by the state. 

Political expediency

Thus, in the case of Zimbabwe, institutions like the judiciary are being used to sustain the capitalist economy. And the state is also clearly serving the interests of capital.

As the government is complaining about over-expenditure, their levels of spending on the military are quite alarming, gobbling about $379 million allocated by Chinamasa during the budget presentation.

With the ongoing retrenchments, it is obvious that, despite the bloated manpower in our security forces, no single soldier or police man will be retrenched. They would rather keep them for political expediency as the anger towards the government is growing by the day.

This article is an edited version, the original version is  on Waza 

Blessing Vava is a blogger who writes from Chipinge in Zimbabwe. He can be contacted on blessingvava@gmail.com

WHAT IS TO BE DONE? A generational task for the Zimbabwean youth

By Blessing Vava

The election of Mmusi Maimane as the leader of South Africa’s biggest opposition party the Democratic Alliance (DA) was received with mixed feelings after his election as the first black leader, of the ‘assumedly’ white controlled party. Maimane’s election has been received with suspicion with the tag ‘puppet’ bracketed over him and that he has been put there to protect the interests of white monopoly capital.

Malema and Maimane leaders of South Africa's biggest opposition parties

However I would not want to waste time debating whether Maimane is a puppet, or that he has no history of the struggle as Jonathan Moyo labelled him, that is none of my business and a debate for another day.  My submission is that Maimane’s election to lead South Africa’s biggest opposition party at the age of 34 is not only historic but an inspiration to the youth in South Africa and the rest of the continent.

Indeed it is a feat that many of his young generation dream of and yet the chances are slim in a world where the youth have for too long been ignored in the affairs of their countries or simply given irrelevant roles.   Apart from Maimane, there is Julius Malema (33) also at the helm of the second biggest opposition party in South Africa the EFF.

There is no doubt that Malema and Maimane, will be at the centre of the youth vote in the 2016 elections, because of the growing calls for political and economic  regeneration by the youth of South Africa. The rise of Malema and Maimane is thus a confirmation that the young people are capable of self-determination and do not need someone to decide on their behalf (future). The more the youth get into these decisions making spaces, the more they influence in pushing for their interests.

We should not continue placing our hopes in the old guard who believe the youth are mere objects of violence and should be used for political terror activities.  Equally not that the old guard is still living in the mantra of the liberation struggle and to them national leadership is a preserve for those with a history of the liberation struggle. 

While we acknowledge the contributions made by the generation of the nationalist liberation leaders, it is not an excuse for failing to transform, adapt to the changing times and focus into the future. A reality that some leaders in ZANU PF are still failing to come to terms with. They are still obsessed with the past, they do believe that the young generation are robots who cannot think or lead. They need to acknowledge that each generation has its own mission. Waging a struggle against a racial oppressive system was no child’s play; it had to be done because that was their generational mission and we can’t continue living in the past.

For people like Jonathan Moyo they need to learn that leadership has nothing to do with the struggle credentials and sadly for his party they are still stuck with Mugabe because they have failed to establish a clear succession plan, with definite dates for their own political exit, moving aside for those behind to move ahead.

That’s the essence of democracy and regeneration of ideals.

The generation of the young people today must indeed discover its mission, it has to be organised. The liberation movements have failed to renew themselves, and it is evident that there is no space for the young people.  The disbanding of the ANC Youth league was mainly an issue of generational gap because of the old guard’s perpetual denial and failure to appreciate the aspirations of the young people.

The formation of the EFF, thus was a signal to the ANC that the young people do not need someone to decide on their future. And Malema and crew have clearly stated that theirs is a fight for economic freedom to fulfil the aspirations of the Freedom Charter.

While South Africa’s biggest opposition parties are being led persons under the age of 35 years, Zimbabwe’s political space is still closed for the young people. Recently a senior ZANU PF official Shuvai Mahofa openly confessed that ZANU PF is being run by old and uneducated people. She also called on the youth that if they wished to be leaders one day to remain faithful to the aged. REALLY?

But to still think that Zimbabwe still needs such type leaders is rather unfortunate and spells doom for the future of the country. Such utterances only proves that the liberation leadership is disconnect with the masses and hence a compelling new covenant with the electorate.

Mahofa-ZANU is being led by old and uneducated people

Therefore, 'generational mandate' has to be seen as a logical process of not betraying the decolonisation project but taking it to the next phase where democracy and creation of opportunities has to be entrenched and enjoyed by the masses of our people. That generational mandate necessarily means liberating the state from being captured by a rapaciously consumptive elite which is largely unaccountable, unresponsive to the people's demands and only interested in reproducing itself as an extracting class. 

WHAT IS TO BE DONE?

The youth have to ask themselves these questions, are they content with being led by old people who are out of touch with our aspirations?

Are they afraid to take risks and challenge those in power? Why are they not mobilising themselves as a generation to fulfil the mission?

The task at hand is generational change. In so doing, there is need to take giant leaps and decisive action without shifting goal posts, it is clear that as a generation, our mission is not yet complete.

Where are we coming from?

The young people who participated at the National Peoples Convention on the 8^th of February 2008 in Harare made this declaration in the Peoples Charter:

7. Believing that at all given times the youth, both female and male, represent the present and the future of our country and that all those in positions of leadership nationally and locally must remain true to the fact that our country shall be passed on from one generation to the next, The People state that, in order for each generation to bequeath to the next a country that remains the epitome of hope, democracy and sustainable livelihoods, the following principles for the youth must be adhered to and respected:

a) The youth shall be guaranteed the right to education at all levels until they acquire their first tertiary qualification.

b) The youth shall be guaranteed an equal voice in decision-making processes that not only affect them but the country as a whole in all spheres of politics, the national economy and social welfare.

c) The youth shall be guaranteed access to the right to health.

d) The youth shall not be subject to political abuse through training regimes that connote political violence or any semblance of propaganda that will compromise their right to determine their future as both individuals and as a collective.

e) The youth have the right to associate and assemble and express themselves freely of their own prerogative.

For these principles to be realised there is need to take decisive programmes of action to change our society for the better for generations to come. The emphasis however should be centred on the strong conviction that the young people should be mobilised to play a developmental role in the democratic struggle. The only political solution will be a youthful political alternative whose agenda will be a revolutionary transformation of society based on a combination of ideological clarity and determination. It is equally important to train and invest in young leaders, who have the ability to construct and realize a forward-looking vision for our country and the continent at large.

Blessing Vuvuzela Vava is a Defender of the Peoples Charter. He writes from Chipinge and can be contacted on blessingvava@gmail.com. He writes in his personal capacity.

Afrobarometer survey-an opportunity to redefine the struggle

By Blessing Vava

The Afrobarometer/ Mass Public Opinion Institute of Zimbabwe report has sent tongues wagging and received with mixed feelings locally and abroad. 

The survey, found that Mugabe enjoys greater support in the rural areas where 70 percent trust him while he only enjoys 45 percent trust of the urban people has left many in disbelief in that despite his age Mugabe enjoys more trust than any other politician in the land.

For the opposition, obviously they are still failing to come to terms with the survey, which also found out that the opposition parties were the least supported institutions, trusted by only 34 percent of Zimbabweans.

Some have dismissed the survey as ‘dogded’, ‘rigged’, ‘nikuved’ and all sorts of dismissive terms.

However we all know for a fact that such allusions have become synonymous with the opposition since time immemorial. In 2013, they dismissed the Susan Booysen (they actually rejected two surveys: the Freedom House one done by Booysen, another internal one done by MDC IRI and also one from Afrobarometer ).  Most of the findings from these  surveys mirrored the results of the the June 2013 elections.

I think dismissing  such  surveys is not only dangerous but disastrous and rather they should help in  developing political strategies based on the worst case scenarios otherwise we would be failing to appreciate and taking into cognisant that surveys constitute free political consultancy.

The broad democratic movement (workers, civil society etc. ) must ask hard questions why Mugabe is popular in the rural areas where there is rampant violence at the time of elections? Is it because the ‘urban based’ movements for democracy have themselves not had a deep understanding of the actual prevailing political economy which includes swathes of ‘rural poverty’?

Hence any serious political outfit should take such findings seriously without necessarily being dismissive and emotive.

On the opposition being least trusted, I think it might be as a result that the MDC is steeped in the same political culture of intolerance violence corruption selfishness and private accumulation (‘personalisation’ of the struggle has become a cocktail for disaster’  .

However the contributions made by the MDC towards some incremental reforms over the past 15 years cannot be ignored but sadly the splits have left the party thin. To be frank at the present moment the political future of opposition politics is in intensive care unit and it needs urgent and practical solutions the results of the survey points to that.  

For me, I think most Zimbabweans have lost faith in the existing opposition parties and I posit that Zimbabwe now needs new strategies, ‘new’ ideas and thinking which will drive the next revolution.

I am not in any way obsessed with attacking the MDCT and neither do I sympathise with ZANU PF, but the fact of the matter is that the people of Zimbabwe are now tired of the opposition because of its failure to remove Mugabe from power.

Many others are no longer participating in elections because elections  have failed to bring about the change we are yearning for. The spirit of change is slowly dying down, those who have been been claiming to be leading the 'struggle' have failed to bring hope and inspire the masses. The faces have remained the same, strategies have not changed and this is an opportunity for this generation to define a new narrative.  

As proponents of democracy, we should at all times be able to  carry the obligation to tell the truth, claim no easy victories and take the masses with us on everything we do and say. Without telling the truth is not only counter-revolutionary, but a recipe for disaster which will lead us to a bottomless pit.  

It is important to note that political activity in the world is a result of conscious human action, not a supernatural phenomenon there is need for massive groundwork and mobilisation to re-energise the masses in the struggle for a social democratic state.

The MDC is not the Alpha and Omega of Zimbabwe's revolutionary politics. Many major political events have transpired in Zimbabwe without the involvement of the MDC, and to think that it is only the MDC that will carry the struggle forward is not only myopic but foolishness of the highest magnitude. Already Zimbabwe made a huge blunder and set a wrong precedence in portraying an incapable ZANU PF and lately the opposition that it cannot outgrow its individual leaders. This is an unfortunate part of our politics where it happens that both sides of political options are disastrous, thus the call for a new alternative to drive the democratic struggle.

Our greatest challenge as a born free generation is accepting the false illusion insinuations that Morgan Tsvangirai is the ‘face of the struggle’ and that Mugabe is a ‘champion of revolutionary politics’ while failing to appreciate that the struggle and politics should outgrow individuals.

There is no doubt that the environment is now ripe for a post-colonial, post-liberation, post-nationalist movement which places the people at the centre of power, participation, opportunities and material improvement?

Our rallying point is the Peoples Charter, a document of the people of Zimbabwe, hoisted by civil society and pro-democratic formations as the torchbearer that should lead Zimbabwe to total political, social and economic emancipation of all citizens. The Peoples Charter is therefore an expression of the social, political and economic will of Zimbabweans.

Blessing ‘Vuvuzela’ Vava is a defender of the Peoples Charter. He writes from Chipinge and can be contacted on blessingvava@gmail.com. Views expressed in this article are personal.

ZANU PF 2014 Congress: Mujuru Learnt Nothing and Forgot Everything

By Blessing Vava

The ZANU PF national congress is here, probably the last congress for ZANU PF’s first

Rivals-Mujuru and Mnangagwa

secretary Robert Mugabe. The much awaited congress which had been viewed by many as not just a congress, but a transitional congress (though not elective) likely to seal ZANU PF’s succession battle. The road to this congress has been boisterous, melodramatic coupled with shocks and surprises as, and since the beginning of the year it had seemed that the embattled vice president Joice Mujuru was tipped to succeed Mugabe.  With the backing of nine provinces, and the fact that she was the second secretary and vice president of the country, punters had already put their biggest bet on Mujuru to lead ZANU PF after Mugabe. It is this false postulation or rather the miscalculation on Mujuru that backfired on her after failing to understand the political dynamics in her party. The notion that she was going to be the automatic successor of Mugabe by virtue of being vice president and possibly the false assumption of popularity in the structures in ZANU PF was ill-informed.  

Those who had put their money on Joice, including the private media had ruled out Justice Minister Emmerson Mnangagwa  in the succession race because his alleged backers had been thumped in the controversial elections that saw him losing control of nine of the ten provinces of ZANU PF.

Rekindling the Memory of 2004

Rewinding the clock ten years back, Mnangagwa, the preferred choice by the provinces in 2004, was made to eat a humble pie after Mugabe controversially amended the ZANU PF constitution to pave way for Mujuru. Six of ZANU PF’s provincial chairpersons aligned to Mnangagwa were suspended and equally accused of trying to topple the ZANU PF presidium. In the process Mnangagwa failed to get the vice presidency Mujuru assuming the post at the benevolence of Mugabe. The biggest lesson that came out that time was that in ZANU PF, one does not necessarily have to be popular amongst the structures to get to the top but rather, one’s loyalty to the president that mattered.  Almost ten years down the line history has repeated itself (Mujuru), despite the backing of nine provinces has suffered the same fate.  Her allies have been purged and now facing serious treason charges.

Interestingly after the youth and women’s congresses held this year, it had seemed Mujuru was now a clear favourite with nine provinces in her back. However as it stands now the writing is now clear on the wall that VP Mujuru’s borrowed robes have waned. Most of her backers have failed to make it to the Central Committee, and like face powder all her assumed control she thought she had in the party has disappeared to an extent of even failing to secure a nomination from her district. It’s now clear that most of her backers, especially the provincial chairpersons will be watching the congress with binoculars, they won’t be part of it.

Learnt nothing and forgot Everything

Mujuru’s tragedy that she will live to regret is the failure to understand the undemocratic nature and character of the party and President Mugabe. Mujuru learnt nothing from Mugabe and the ZANU PF system of patronage and forgot that the party’s supreme decision making is embodied in the president. Here is a party and a president who has used patronage, corruption, state machinery and dictatorial tendencies to intimidate perceived enemies to stay in power at whatever cost. Mugabe thrives on fanning factionalism in the party. He has used patronage systematically to an extent that most leaders in ZANU PF are where they are because of Mugabe’s benevolence and not necessarily about their capabilities. He knows who has been doing what and how they have all acquired quick riches. The balancing act for Mugabe’s power has been the absence of a united voice within ZANU PF calling for Mugabe to step down to an extent  that factionalism has maintained his grip on power. And the history of ZANU PF in the past ten years has been a serious contestation for control of party structures (DCCs and PCCs) and ultimate succession of Mugabe.

Mujuru’s greatest blunder was the failure to locate where power resides in ZANU PF. In a dictatorship like ZANU PF power resides not in the people but in the leader who happens to be Mugabe. So the thinking by Mujuru that she will have a majority of votes at congress was not only wishful but rather foolish and misplaced. They thought Mugabe was going to act by the rules but alas he has shown them that he is the master and what he says carries the day and not otherwise.   On the 8^th September 2014 Mujuru, at a Politburo Meeting boastfully challenged Opah Muchinguri to the ballot at congress as she thought she her perceived control of the structures was sufficient to retain her post and subsequently succeed Mugabe. Thus:

‘’Don’t speak — go out and fight, then you will see; Now I say to other people, if they want to take the risk, then take the risk, That is good. And I am happy to fight. But if you take the risk you also have the chance to lose.’’

Daily News 9 September 2014

Unfortunately Dr VP, it does not happen that way in the revolutionary party. The bark starts and stops with Mugabe.  ZANU PF is not a democratic party, and Mujuru herself was catapulted to the vice presidency through dictatorial means something she has easily and quickly forgotten.  Similarly in 2004, the constitution has been amended again, making this congress ‘selective’ rather than elective because the president has been given sweeping powers to choose the team he wants to work with.

In all this drama, there are some who think ZANU PF is heading for a split, possibly being orchestrated by the Mujuru faction which I believe will not happen anytime soon. The view that a post Mugabe ZANU PF is headed for a split is misplaced and fails to understand that the dominant centre of power in ZANU PF relies on patronage and the control of state power and machinery to thwart dissenting voices or rebellious elements.   Those who have fallen by the wayside including Mujuru herself will either remain in ZANU PF or if they so wish die poor because most of them are products of a patronage system and corruption. Any attempts to defy the status quo will result in some of them being persecuted or dying poor, a compromise non amongst them is willing to undertake. The current expose’ on corruption and underhand dealings by the VP is a clear reminder to her that if she decides to go against the wishes and decisions of the ‘Prince’, her actions will be complemented by serious ramifications to her person, family and business empire.

Postulating the Congress:

The outcome of the congress is almost predictable and the ZANU PF presidium will have new faces after the 7^th of December.  It will be dominated by Mnangagwa loyalists namely Oppah, Mphoko and Mudenda. Mnangagwa is the front runner to succeed Mujuru in line with the recent amendments of the ZANU PF constitution.

Apart from these changes in the Presidium and Politburo respectively there is a likelihood of a cabinet reshuffle.  Most Ministers who were fingered in the plot to assassinate Mugabe will face the boot, and the list has Goche, Bhasikiti, Mutasa, Mavhaire and several other deputies will be removed but also not ruling out that one or two names will bounce back at the mercy of Mugabe, who still has 10 more direct appointments to make in the Central Committee.  The cabinet reshuffle will likely take place before Mugabe goes on his annual leave with Mujuru probably facing the axe and replaced by Emmerson Mnangagwa. The First Lady, Grace Mugabe has already indicated that the country’s vice presidents can all be men sustained by a constitutional amendment on the ZANU PF removing the gender clause. It will also be interesting to note how the congress will deal with the renegade MPs considering their centrality and designation in national legislation. Is the congress momentum going to be sustained beyond 7 December or we will witness a halt of the sackings and attempts to regroup with all party cadres?

Zimbabwe’s VP and Interim Heir

Emmerson Mnangagwa has for years been a loyalist of Mugabe having served as his Personal Assistant during the war and Mugabe’s Chief Election Agent in the 1980 and the watershed 2013 elections. Mnangagwa is believed to have rescued ZANU PF and the president after the 29 March 2008 electoral loss at the hands of the MDC by swiftly coordinating the Joint Operation Command (JOC) in the run up to the 27 June 2008 ‘run off.’ He is tipped to take over as President after Mugabe with some media reports suggesting that Mugabe told the Chinese during his state visit to that country this year that Mnangagwa was his successor.

The choice of having Mnangagwa, a hardliner is a progression of radical politics and will both preserve and strengthen Mugabe’s legacy of dictatorship and ruthlessness. Joyce Mujuru’s sympathy from the opposition and links with the West cost her dearly in the eyes of Mugabe. Mujuru is rumoured to have failed to guarantee the security of the First Family in the event of departure of the president with recordings of her voice threatening to reverse ZANU PF policy direction and international relations. Because of Mnangagwa’s proximity and loyalty to the First family makes him a good replacement to the nonagenarian leader.

This congress and the whole succession issue is about the security and future of Mugabe’s family, this is why his wife Grace has been playing a pivotal role in this power matrix. Its either she together with her allies, the Mnangagwa group are probably privy to some  alarming health records on Mugabe or maybe he wants to retire in 2015.  Hence, the spirited campaign to decimate the Mujuru group in the process throwing them further away from the succession dynamics and dealing with this issue once and for all.

The Future:

The ZANU PF congress will come and go; not even the reshuffling of cabinet will change the fortunes of this country in the not so near future. The economic woes are likely going to continue and 2015 will be a very difficult year with the continuation of the Zimbabwe-China/Russia relations with the EU being marginal. Investment partners given the preferred FDI by the Mugabe-Mnangagwa group in ZANU PF. The new incumbent will obviously consolidate power, and the template will not change the use of state apparatus to intimidate opponents, the manipulation of the country’s electoral process will continue. The Mnangagwa group will derive benefit in engineering by-elections in parliamentary seats belonging to Mujuru’s allies as a means of gauging the state and performance of the party ahead of the 2018 elections. On the whole, the 2018 elections will continue to be a no contest with the new incumbent fiercely defending his position and given the current absence of a viable opposition voice in Zimbabwe, ZANU PF’s hegemony will go unchallenged. The Mnangagwa group will need to be mindful of the ramifications of a disjointed and weakened ZANU PF in the 2018 elections possibly with the resurgence of the Bhora Musango phenomenon by disgruntled cadres.

Zvazviri!

Blessing ‘Vuvuzela’ Vava writes from Chipinge and can be contacted on blessingvava@gmail.com