Elections for Sale? The Angolan Playbook

An influence-for-hire operation in Angola offers a glimpse into how the battle for African elections is moving from the ballot box to the voter’s screen.


By Blessing Ivan Vava

For years, our conversations about the integrity of African elections have centred on the polling station. Could people register and vote freely? Could opposition parties campaign? Were ballot boxes secure? Was counting transparent? Increasingly, though, a large part of the election is happening somewhere you cannot walk into.

These questions still matter, but they no longer tell us the whole story.

A recent investigation by the University of Toronto’s Citizen Lab into BlackCore, an Israeli influence-for-hire company, gives us a glimpse of another electoral battleground.

Citizen Lab uncovered material referring to an “Angolan Government Campaign”, involving training in storytelling, copywriting, traffic management and social-media operations. Researchers found deceptive online personas, AI-generated profile pictures, coordinated amplification and a fabricated news outlet called Agita News. Content was introduced through apparently independent identities and pushed through online communities, with its reach monitored along the way.

There are limits to what has been established. Citizen Lab could not identify the Angolan personnel involved or independently confirm the identities of those who conducted the training. After examining BlackCore’s material and related online infrastructure, however, the researchers assessed it as highly likely that the programme happened as the company described.

With Angola heading towards elections in 2027, that deserves attention. But this is not only an Angolan story. It tells us something about how African elections are changing.

I saw some of this during Zambia’s 2026 elections. I spent considerable time in the country during the pre-election, election-day and post-election periods. The rallies and polling stations mattered, but much of the political contest was happening somewhere else: on people’s phones.

WhatsApp, Facebook and TikTok had become political arenas in their own right. Fake quotations, edited videos, anonymous pages and misleading claims circulated alongside genuine political debate. In one instance, a manipulated video purported to show opposition candidate Brian Mundubile saying he had evidence that the election would be rigged.

We have seen similar tactics elsewhere. Just before Nigeria’s 2023 election, a manipulated audio recording purported to capture opposition figures discussing plans to rig the vote. During South Africa’s 2024 election, AI-generated videos circulated in which Donald Trump appeared to endorse Jacob Zuma’s MKP Party and Joe Biden appeared to threaten sanctions if the ANC won.

Some of this material was not particularly sophisticated. It did not have to be.

What makes the BlackCore revelations more troubling is the organisation behind the messaging. This goes beyond someone creating a fake photograph or forwarding a misleading WhatsApp message. Citizen Lab found evidence of fake identities, an apparently independent news platform and coordinated efforts to spread material through online communities. Generative AI has made this kind of work easier and cheaper.

Political persuasion is nothing new. Governments have communication departments. Political parties employ strategists and candidates advertise. Citizens campaign for causes and politicians they support.

The difficulty comes when we cannot tell who is speaking to us.

We know how to treat a message carrying the logo of a political party. We can also recognise official government communication. It becomes harder when the same political message appears to come from an ordinary citizen, an independent commentator or a news organisation that is not what it claims to be.

This connects with something I have been writing about for some time: Africa’s digital sovereignty.

Much of that debate has focused on infrastructure, data centres, foreign technology companies and where our data eventually ends up. I have argued that these are political questions as much as technological ones. Elections bring another part of the problem into view. The issue is no longer only who controls our data or the infrastructure underneath our digital lives. It is also about the growing power to influence what reaches our screens in the first place.

That power is easy to underestimate. Most people scrolling through Facebook, TikTok or WhatsApp are not thinking about the systems behind what they are seeing. Yet a network of fake accounts can make an argument appear more popular than it is. Repetition can give a fabricated story the appearance of credibility. Algorithms then determine how far some of this material travels.

In an election, attention itself becomes part of the contest. Winning it can mean deciding which issue dominates the day, which allegation refuses to disappear and which political narrative follows voters around on their phones. That is why digital sovereignty must also concern itself with the conditions under which our attention is captured and political opinion is formed.

This creates a problem for election observation.

Our methods were largely developed for a different kind of election. We know how to observe voter registration, rallies, polling stations, counting centres and results forms. An observer can arrive at a polling station in the morning and confirm that the ballot box is empty.

It is much harder to observe everything that happened on the voter’s phone before they arrived there.

That does not mean every misleading post changes a vote, nor should we start blaming technology whenever an election produces a result we do not expect. Voters have agency. Misinformation is also much older than social media. South Africa’s experience showed that an old photograph with a false caption can sometimes do the job just as effectively as an AI-generated video.

What has changed is how quickly this material can be produced and spread, and how difficult it can be to know who is behind it.

Election observation will have to catch up. Observer missions and civil society organisations increasingly need people who understand digital platforms, coordinated networks, AI-generated material and online political advertising. Election management bodies will also have to engage platforms and independent researchers more seriously.

There is a danger here too. Governments can easily use the language of fighting “fake news” to restrict journalism, opposition politics and legitimate criticism. Protecting elections from manipulation cannot become an excuse for governments to decide what citizens are allowed to say or read.

That is why what happened in Angola should concern the rest of the continent.

The important lesson from BlackCore is not simply that false information exists online. We have known that for years. More disturbing is that the tools for creating the appearance of public opinion can now be packaged, outsourced, and sold.

That changes the electoral integrity conversation.

The ballot box still matters. But before a voter reaches it, another political contest may already have been taking place for weeks on the small screen in their hand.

If we watch the ballot but ignore that contest, we may increasingly be observing only half the election.ENDS


About the Author

Dr Blessing Vava is a Zimbabwean researcher, writer and democracy advocate working on elections, digital sovereignty and governance in Southern Africa. He holds a Doctor of Literature and Philosophy (DLitt et Phil) in Communication Studies from the University of Johannesburg. His research examines the intersection of technology, geopolitics and governance in Africa. He writes The ThursdayBriefing, a regular commentary on democracy, technology and politics.



The ThursdayBriefing: The Passport, the Database and the State: Who Controls Digital Zimbabwe?



17 September 2026 (Long Read-11 minutes read)

By Dr Blessing Vava

I recently arrived at Robert Gabriel Mugabe International Airport after a trip to Zambia. Like many other travellers, I went straight to the new self-service passport scanner. Within seconds, the system confirmed who I was.

It was an ordinary transaction, the kind we barely think about. We scan our passports, collect our luggage and leave. We rarely stop to wonder what happens behind the screen.

But this time, I did.

As I walked away, I found myself thinking about that scan: what exactly had the system just read about me, where had that information gone, and who ultimately controlled the infrastructure behind it?

Where did my data go?

What exactly did the system read from my e-passport? What information was retrieved or recorded in Zimbabwe's immigration systems, where is it stored, who secures it, who can access it, and who built the infrastructure through which it travels? Most importantly, does the Government of Zimbabwe possess effective technological control over the digital systems that increasingly know who we are?

These may sound like technical questions for computer scientists and immigration officials. They are not: they are questions of sovereignty.

The passport is no longer just a passport

For generations, the passport was primarily a physical document establishing nationality and identity. The e-passport changes that relationship: an embedded contactless chip digitally stores identity information under International Civil Aviation Organisation standards, including biometric and cryptographic mechanisms used to authenticate the document. Zimbabwe introduced its e-passport programme in January 2022. The benefits are obvious: passports are harder to forge, verification is faster, and border processing more efficient. As someone who travels regularly, I appreciate that convenience.

But convenience creates another reality. The passport has quietly evolved from a booklet we carry in our pockets into an interface with a much larger digital identity infrastructure. And once identity becomes data, we must start asking who controls it.

There is an important distinction. When my Zimbabwean passport was scanned, that did not necessarily mean my entire biometric record was transmitted somewhere. The chip contains information that can be read and authenticated under international standards. But what sits behind the scanner? What database confirms identity, what record is created when someone enters or leaves Zimbabwe, where is it stored, and who administers the systems?

One scan seems insignificant. Millions become a database, and a database becomes an asset.

The same questions arise with Zimbabwe's e-visa system. Applicants enter personal information, passport details and travel information online. The official platform says these details are confidential and stored in 'high-security systems.' Reassuring, yes, but where are those systems and backups, who operates the software, who has privileged administrator access, and who controls the encryption keys?

Who built Zimbabwe's digital identity architecture?

Zimbabwe did not develop every component of its e-passport ecosystem on its own. In 2021, Cabinet announced implementation of the e-passport production project under a Build, Own, Operate and Transfer agreement with the Lithuanian company Garsu Pasaulis. Semlex, a Belgian biometric-identification company, separately lists Zimbabwe's Ministry of Home Affairs among its government references for electronic and biometric passports, national identity cards, visas and civil records.

Foreign technological involvement is not unusual. Governments everywhere buy technology from companies based elsewhere, and Zimbabwe cannot manufacture every chip, server or line of code it needs. Nor does foreign involvement prove that anyone has a secret backdoor into Zimbabwe's databases; such a claim requires evidence. But absence of evidence of unauthorised access is not the same as demonstrating sovereign control.

The important question is whether Zimbabwe possesses the technical capacity to independently verify that nobody who should not have access actually does. That is the sovereignty test.

A server in Harare is not enough

Zimbabwe has invested in government data-centre infrastructure, including the National Data Centre commissioned in Harare in 2021. But the centre itself illustrates the complexity of digital sovereignty. It was completed with assistance from the Chinese government and Chinese firms Inspur Group and Sino-Zimbabwe; at its commissioning, President Emmerson Mnangagwa publicly thanked China for its strategic support and technical expertise in e-government. The government has also signalled plans to upgrade it to Tier 4 standards, announced by ICT minister Tatenda Mavetera at the Computer Society of Zimbabwe Summit in 2025.

There is nothing inherently problematic about that cooperation, and Chinese involvement does not establish that China has access to data stored at the centre. But it sharpens the question this article is asking. What does sovereignty mean when the infrastructure is physically national, while some of the technology, expertise or technical dependencies that helped create it originate elsewhere? Localising data is important; it is not the same thing as possessing the knowledge and capacity to control the systems that hold it.

Those investments matter, but they do not answer where critical passport, e-visa, immigration, national identity and civil-registration databases and backups are hosted, which companies maintain their software and security architecture, or who possesses privileged access.

The public does not need sensitive technical configurations published. But independent institutions must know the answers. Parliament should exercise oversight, the Data Protection Authority should know, and cleared Zimbabwean cybersecurity experts should be capable of auditing critical systems. Sovereignty cannot depend entirely on assurances from those operating the technology.

We often talk about data sovereignty as if the decisive question were simply where the server sits. Geography matters, but it is only the beginning. A database can sit in Harare while depending on software, security updates, expertise or remote administrators located elsewhere. The server may be ours while the knowledge required to operate it belongs to somebody else. That is dependency, and dependency becomes vulnerability when a state cannot independently understand, audit, repair or replace a critical system.

The real test is simple: if the foreign technology provider disappeared tomorrow, could Zimbabwe keep the system running? If not, we need to distinguish between possessing data and possessing sovereignty over data.

This question of dependency also touches a wider debate about what economist Yanis Varoufakis calls technofeudalism: a system in which those who own and control cloud infrastructure, platforms and algorithmic systems acquire extraordinary power over those who depend on them. His thesis is contested, and Zimbabwe's reliance on foreign technology should not simply be labelled technofeudalism. But the concept raises a useful question for African states: what happens when sovereignty remains formally national while some of the technological capabilities through which that sovereignty is exercised are controlled, maintained or understood elsewhere?

Europe is asking the same question

This is not uniquely a Zimbabwean anxiety. Germany's Schleswig-Holstein has been moving its public administration from Microsoft Office towards LibreOffice and developing a Linux-based workplace, explicitly linking the migration to digital sovereignty and reduced technological dependency.

France confronted a more sensitive version in April 2026 when its Health Data Hub selected French provider Scaleway as it transitions away from Microsoft's Azure cloud after concerns about sovereignty and foreign legal jurisdiction over health data. In June, the European Commission presented a Technological Sovereignty Package spanning semiconductors, cloud infrastructure, AI and open source, while its Cloud Sovereignty Framework assesses providers against criteria including strategic control, jurisdiction, data, technology and security.

These are wealthy states with sophisticated cybersecurity institutions and considerable bargaining power, yet they worry about technological dependency. If Europe is asking these questions about software and cloud infrastructure running its governments, why shouldn't Zimbabwe ask them about passports, biometrics, immigration and civil-registration systems?

The lesson is not that African governments should stop using foreign technology. That would be neither realistic nor desirable. What matters is whether they retain capacity, control and choice. Dependence can hide in ordinary arrangements: a ministry using foreign cloud infrastructure or a contractor maintaining a database local officials cannot independently repair. Such arrangements may be legitimate, but the sovereignty question remains: who controls the digital machinery of the state?

African governments should be able to use American, Chinese, European, Indian or other technology without permanent dependence on the provider. A sovereign state should know where critical data resides, who has administrator access, who controls encryption keys, whether systems can be audited and migrated, and whether its own engineers can keep them functioning. Digital sovereignty is partly the ability to walk away.

But changing suppliers is not the same thing as becoming sovereign. Replacing an American platform with a Chinese one, or a Chinese system with a European one, does not create African sovereignty. The objective is to expand Africa's capacity to choose through investment in cybersecurity, data centres, software engineering, open standards, research and indigenous AI, alongside regional standards and shared expertise through bodies such as SADC and the African Union.

The layers of sovereignty

So the question cannot stop at where data is stored. Legal control matters, but so do the infrastructure through which information moves, the software and encryption that govern it, the domestic expertise needed to operate or replace those systems, and increasingly the algorithms capable of turning vast datasets into classifications, predictions and knowledge.

These questions run into one another. Data moves through infrastructure and systems; algorithms can then turn it into knowledge. And knowledge, in the hands of states and powerful companies, is a form of power. That is why this discussion is much bigger than the passport.

Think again about the airport scan. One record of my return from Zambia tells you little; millions of travel records accumulated over years reveal patterns of movement. The same principle extends across identity, telecommunications, finance, health, civil-registration and tax systems: each serves a legitimate purpose, but together they describe a society in extraordinary detail.

AI and sophisticated algorithms can extract knowledge from such datasets at unprecedented scale. The strategic value of data increasingly lies not only in what one database contains, but in what can be learned when datasets are combined. Foreign-designed technology does not automatically mean foreign access, but governments must be able to identify, mitigate and independently audit the risks. Trust is not a cybersecurity architecture.

This is what I describe as geosociotechnopolitics: the interaction between geography, society, technology and political power. Zimbabwe's passport system illustrates it well. It forces us to ask several questions at once: where the data sits; whose identities and movements it represents; who designed, maintains and understands the systems; who has authority to access, transfer or combine the information; and what dependence means when the actors involved possess vastly unequal technological and computational power.

Seen through this lens, the e-passport is no longer merely a travel document. It is part of the infrastructure through which the Zimbabwean citizen increasingly becomes digitally legible.

Zimbabwe has laws. But does it have the capacity?

Zimbabwe is not operating in a legal vacuum. The Cyber and Data Protection Act designates POTRAZ as the Data Protection Authority, regulates personal information and places conditions on transfers of personal information outside Zimbabwe.

But legislation cannot secure a database by itself. A country also needs engineers, cybersecurity specialists, secure infrastructure, encryption, independent auditing, incident-response capability and strong institutional oversight. Legal sovereignty without technological capacity risks becoming sovereignty on paper.

What Zimbabwe should do now

Zimbabwe does not need to disconnect from the world. It needs strategic digital autonomy: the ability to benefit from foreign technology while retaining effective control over critical national systems.

A practical starting point is to identify Zimbabwe's critical sovereign data: passports and biometrics, national identity and civil registration, health, financial and tax information, telecommunications, electoral systems and national-security data.

Government should then conduct a sovereign-data and digital-infrastructure audit. For every critical system it should know where databases and backups are hosted, which companies and subcontractors are involved, who controls encryption keys and privileged access, whether remote administration is possible, what information crosses Zimbabwe's borders, and whether access is independently logged and audited.

Government procurement also needs a sovereignty test. The EU experience shows that providers can be assessed against sovereignty criteria. African governments can develop frameworks suited to their own conditions, nationally and eventually through SADC or the African Union. Critical public technologies need not all be African-made, but they must remain under meaningful African control.

Procurement contracts should also require genuine technology transfer and a credible exit strategy. Zimbabwean engineers should not merely operate somebody else's black box; they should understand the box. Open standards and open-source technologies should be considered where they improve transparency and independence, while vendor lock-in should be treated as a sovereignty risk.

Before signing a contract for critical national digital infrastructure, government should ask one deceptively simple question: if this company disappeared tomorrow, could Zimbabwe independently operate, secure, audit, repair and recover the system? If the answer is no, the problem is bigger than procurement. It is a sovereignty problem.

Who controls the digital Zimbabwean?

When I walked away from immigration at Robert Gabriel Mugabe International Airport, the passport scan had taken only seconds. But the questions stayed with me. We are rapidly digitising the state: passports, visas, borders, civil registries, health systems and financial services. Increasingly, the state encounters us as data. That changes the meaning of sovereignty.

Political independence gave African states authority over their territory and borders. Digital transformation introduces another frontier: who controls the digital representation of the people living within those borders?

There is also a distinctly Zimbabwean way of thinking about this question. In my doctoral work, I return to Nehanda as a symbol of self-determination and to the proposition that Zimbabwe's story is not finished until Nehanda is in it. That idea takes on a new meaning in the digital age. Political independence was ultimately about the right of a people to determine their own affairs. Digital sovereignty carries that unfinished question into another domain: can a society meaningfully determine its own future if the technological systems through which its citizens are identified, governed and increasingly understood remain beyond its effective control?

If Nehanda represented the struggle for political self-determination, the digital age asks what self-determination means when identity, borders and state power increasingly run through code. The question is not whether Zimbabwe should reject foreign technology. It is whether technological modernisation expands our capacity for self-determination or quietly creates new forms of dependence. Seen this way, digital sovereignty is not technological nationalism. It is the digital expression of an older struggle for agency.

Zimbabwe should continue modernising its immigration systems and welcome e-passports, efficient e-gates and digital public services. But technological convenience should never require intellectual complacency.

The next time I place my passport on a scanner, I want to know that behind that simple transaction Zimbabwe possesses the people, institutions, laws, infrastructure and technological knowledge necessary to control it. The most important question is no longer simply whether the technology works, but who ultimately possesses the power behind it.

Where does the data go? Who stores it? Who secures it? Who can access it? Who understands the system? And who possesses the ultimate power to say no?

In the twenty-first century, controlling our borders is no longer enough. 

We must also control the digital infrastructure through which those borders, and the people crossing them, are increasingly understood. ENDS

About the Author

Dr Blessing Vava is a Zimbabwean researcher and civic leader working on democracy, technology and governance in Africa. He holds a DLitt et Phil in Communication Studies from the University of Johannesburg, where his doctoral research produced geosociotechnopolitics, a framework linking geography, society, technology and political power.

He is the founding Executive Director of the Southern Africa Coalition for Democracy and Accountability (SACDA) and writes The Thursday Briefing, a weekly newsletter on politics, technology and sovereignty in Africa. Contact: blessingvava@gmail.com.

Happy Birthday, Your Majesty! Mnangagwa's March Towards a Presidency for Life

          President Emmerson Mnangagwa opens the Sanganai/Hlanganani Tourism Expo in Masvingo, September 2026, where he told delegates he expects to "still be in power" in 2035. (Photo: [ZANU PF Website]

By Blessing Vava

On 15 September, Zimbabwe observes a new public holiday: Munhumutapa Day.

Officially, it honours the pre-colonial Mutapa state, which once ruled much of present-day Zimbabwe and Mozambique. Unofficially, everyone in Harare knows the real reason: September 15 is also President Emmerson Mnangagwa's birthday.

Through Statutory Instrument 148 of 2026, Mnangagwa has effectively turned his birthday into an annual national holiday. Munhumutapa Day therefore arrives already wrapped in the political mythology Mnangagwa has spent nine years building around himself.

The symbolism is not subtle. Munhumutapa was a royal title, not an elected office, and it is being draped over a sitting president at the exact moment his government is dismantling the constitutional machinery built to make power change hands peacefully.

So the question this first Munhumutapa holiday should raise is not what happened five centuries ago. It's what is happening to the presidency right now.

From "Second Republic" to Permanent Republic?

When Mnangagwa emerged from the November 2017 military intervention that removed Robert Mugabe, he presented himself as the leader of a transition.

For many Zimbabweans, including sections of civil society and the opposition that welcomed Mugabe's departure, November 2017 represented the possibility of a reset after 37 years of Mugabe's rule.

Mnangagwa offered a new script: "the voice of the people is the voice of God," Zimbabwe was "open for business," and the Second Republic would re-engage the world and move beyond the habits of the Mugabe years.

Nine years later, that script has curdled. The man who arrived promising a transition increasingly appears determined never to preside over one.

Constitutional Amendment No. 3 (CAB3) is the clearest evidence. It stretched the presidential and parliamentary term from five to seven years, extending the current political cycle to 2030. More consequentially, it abolished the direct popular election of the president, replacing it with election by members of Parliament sitting jointly.

That is not a technical tweak; it changes who gets to choose Zimbabwe's head of state. CAB3 moves that decision from millions of Zimbabweans standing in polling queues to a Parliament that ZANU-PF now dominates outright. It does more than postpone succession: it relocates the fight for the presidency from the national electorate into the ruling party's own internal machinery.

Then Mnangagwa said something extraordinary. Speaking at the Sanganai/Hlanganani Tourism Expo in Masvingo this September, he reportedly said that after the expo had rotated through Zimbabwe's provinces over nine years, "I will still be in power."

Nine years from 2026 is 2035. His constitutionally extended tenure ends in 2030. The five-year gap between those two dates is the real story.

It may have been humour, or political banter. But Zimbabwe's recent history counsels against dismissing such remarks too quickly. The 2030 extension was itself once dismissed as sloganeering; today it's constitutional reality.

The Chiwenga Problem

One man has most to lose from this trajectory: Vice-President Constantino Chiwenga.

It's a sharp irony. As commander of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces, Chiwenga led the military intervention that removed Mugabe and cleared Mnangagwa's own path to the presidency. Whatever understanding existed between the two men has never been publicly established, but Chiwenga has long been regarded as a leading contender to succeed him.

Time, however, is moving against him. 2028 became 2030; now Mnangagwa talks about 2035. The longer Mnangagwa stays, the more the question changes from when Chiwenga takes over to whether he ever will.

That may be Zimbabwe's most dangerous political fault line, and it doesn't run through the opposition. It runs straight through ZANU-PF itself.

Businessman Kudakwashe Tagwirei is the other name that has hovered over this succession battle for years. His growing political visibility, powerful networks and outsized economic clout have fueled speculation that Mnangagwa might prefer a successor from outside the military-liberation establishment Chiwenga represents.

But perhaps that's the wrong contest to be watching. The real rivalry may not yet be Chiwenga versus Tagwirei. It may still be Mnangagwa versus everyone who assumes he's leaving.

Munhumutapa Day, the extension to 2030, the abolition of direct elections, the manoeuvring around the ZANU-PF congress, and now Mnangagwa's own remarks about 2035, add up to something else: not a succession plan, but a political system built so that succession can be deferred indefinitely.

The Opposition Has Already Been Neutralised

Mnangagwa can entertain such a future partly because Zimbabwe's opposition has rarely been weaker, and not because it lost at the ballot box.

After the disputed 2023 election, the Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) was plunged into crisis when Sengezo Tshabangu declared himself interim secretary-general and began recalling elected CCC MPs and councillors. The party denied he had any authority to do so, but the recalls proceeded through Parliament and became entangled in court battles.

The political damage was devastating. Nelson Chamisa eventually abandoned the CCC, saying it had been "contaminated" and "hijacked." Whatever Chamisa's own strategic failures, the result was the same: an opposition that had seriously challenged ZANU-PF fragmented into irrelevance.

Worse, some of the opposition legislators who survived the purge then supplied the votes needed to pass CAB3.

Zimbabwe's democratic crisis, then, is no longer just about whether the opposition can beat ZANU-PF at the polls. It's about whether the conditions for real political competition still exist at all.

The Ghost of Mugabe

There's a warning buried in Zimbabwe's own history that should trouble Mnangagwa more than anyone.

Robert Mugabe also postponed succession until succession became a crisis. Joice Mujuru was removed. Mnangagwa was eventually dismissed. Grace Mugabe's political ambitions intensified factional conflict. In the end, the question ZANU-PF had failed to resolve politically was settled by soldiers, and Mnangagwa was the principal beneficiary.

He should therefore understand, better than anyone, the danger of closing peaceful pathways to succession. If Chiwenga concludes that his route to the presidency is permanently blocked, if competing factions believe constitutional rules will continually be redesigned around one man, and if powerful economic interests align themselves with rival camps, the succession struggle doesn't disappear. It goes underground.

An opposition can be infiltrated. Constitutions can be amended. Parliament can be controlled. Courts can shape political outcomes. But political ambition cannot be legislated out of existence.

Which is why Munhumutapa Day carries such uncomfortable symbolism. There is nothing wrong with Zimbabwe celebrating its pre-colonial history; African societies should reclaim histories colonialism sought to erase. But the Mutapa civilisation belongs to Zimbabweans, not to ZANU-PF, and certainly not to Emmerson Mnangagwa.

When a sitting president's birthday becomes a national holiday wrapped in the imagery of kingship while constitutional restraints on his tenure are simultaneously loosened, the boundary between symbolism and politics becomes dangerously thin. Zimbabwe isn't about to formally crown Mnangagwa king. The real risk is subtler: republican institutions can remain intact on paper while political practice becomes increasingly monarchical.

Beijing, Washington and the Politics of Permanence

This succession question has an audience well beyond Harare.

China is now deeply embedded in Zimbabwe's economy through mining, infrastructure, energy and telecommunications, and Beijing's overriding interest is stability and the safety of its investments, not which ZANU-PF face sits in State House.

But that is exactly what makes an unresolved succession risky: the more power personalises around Mnangagwa, the bigger the question mark over what happens to those relationships once he's gone.

Washington faces a different dilemma. The United States ended its broad Zimbabwe sanctions program in 2024 but placed Mnangagwa and several associates under Global Magnitsky sanctions over corruption and human-rights allegations. Further constitutional backsliding could make meaningful re-engagement more difficult and deepen Harare's reliance on China and other non-Western partners.

Whoever eventually succeeds Mnangagwa inherits more than a title. They inherit a state wedged between Chinese economic influence, Western pressure, and Zimbabwe's own unfinished search for strategic autonomy.

But neither Beijing nor Washington can fix Zimbabwe's real problem: a political system built around one man's refusal to let go.

The Most Dangerous Contest May Still Be Coming

By most measures, Mnangagwa has rarely looked stronger. The opposition is fragmented. Parliament is dominated by ZANU-PF. The constitution has been rewritten. Direct presidential elections have been abolished. His tenure has been extended to 2030. His birthday is now a national holiday. And he says he expects to still be in power in 2035.

Yet Mnangagwa's greatest vulnerability may emerge precisely from this success. By closing the democratic route to succession, he risks intensifying an undemocratic struggle for succession inside his own movement.

Chiwenga cannot wait forever. Tagwirei cannot remain a succession rumour forever. Sooner or later, the networks now circling the succession question will have to decide where their interests lie. And no constitutional amendment can extend a man's life indefinitely.

Perhaps that is the deeper meaning of Munhumutapa Day. Zimbabwe is being asked to look backwards toward the imagery of an ancient kingdom at precisely the moment it should be looking forward and asking what kind of republic it wants to become.

The question is no longer simply whether Mnangagwa remains until 2030. After his own words in Masvingo, Zimbabweans are entitled to ask something more uncomfortable:

Is there any date on which Emmerson Mnangagwa now intends to leave power voluntarily?

Because when a republic organises itself around the permanence of one man, the danger isn't only that the president stays too long. It's what happens when everyone waiting to succeed him concludes that he never intends to leave at all. Ends//

Dr Blessing Vava is a Zimbabwean researcher, political analyst and civic leader specialising in democracy, governance, digital politics and Southern African affairs. He can be contacted at blessingvava@gmail.com